I think Longman will stay with Jon Sullivan and Labor; slip-ups in radio interviews notwithstanding. The demographics of the area make it more naturally Labor to start with (perhaps surprisingly . . . but look at past booth stats for Longman from City Hall as a clue). Plus, Sullivan took it off Mal Brough in 07 -- who held it on 9.6 percent -- with the breeze behind his back. Sure, it looks really close on paper at 1.4 or whatever, but there's a 'historical momentum' in Sullivan's win that will be hard to reverse out of its pure inertia. Combined with the candidate the LNP are running, I can't see the electorate really swapping trains. They have no good and compelling reason to. The undecideds? They'll umm and ahh . . . think about it in the booth . . . not be able to see any hurt that Labor put on them (or that the Libs are likely to) and vote as they did in '07 (In fact, I think that'll be pretty common across the election. Though I suspect 'informal' to pick up a booth or two on primary!).