| Global warming quantitative analysis |
| Thursday, 22 October 2009 14:07 | by Graham |
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The survey provides a deep insight into how people view the global warming issue. We first asked questions to ascertain whether respondents thought that CO2 was a greenhouse gas, whether they thought man's production of it was causing climate change, and whether they thought there was an unacceptable risk of catastrophic climate change. When asked whether increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase earth's temperature, 62% agreed, 23% disagreed while 15% neither agreed nor disagreed or were unsure. Effectively less than two-thirds of Australians believe or are sure that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The next question tried to determine how many believe that man's emissions of CO2 are having an effect on the environment. In this case 58% agreed that they are while 28% disagreed. The third proposition asked the "so what" question. Do "increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere pose an unacceptable risk of a catastrophic change in earth's temperature in the future?" In this case 55% agreed with the proposition while 31% opposed it. When the data was further dissected it became clear that voting intentions were highly predictive of belief or skepticism of catastrophic global warming. 93% of Greens believe that there is a risk of CO2 induced catastrophe, compared to 82% of Labor voters, 17% of Liberals and 5% of Nationals. (Table figures are slightly different to those above because minor parties are not represented in the dissection.)
Age was also a factor in whether respondents believe there is a significant risk of catastrophe.
Income was mixed. Those earning $75,000 p.a. or more were less likely than average to believe in a potential catastrophe, as were those earning $35,000 p.a. or less. The controversy over whether there is a scientific consensus was also partially resolved by this research. 72% of scientists agree that there is an unacceptable risk of catastrophe. There was also an industry split with those in Wholesale Trade least likely to see an unacceptable catastrophe coming (64%), followed by Mining (58%), and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (49%). Educators (75%) were the most likely to see the risk of catastrophe as unacceptable. Attitudes to the CPRS varied in some significant respects to what might be expected given the figures above. Only 40% support the CPRS while 42% oppose it. Strongest support comes from Labor voters (70%). Only 42% of Greens support it, 5% of Liberals and 2% of Nationals. This means that a significant number of those who believe there is an unacceptable risk of catastrophe do not support a CPRS. The same holds true for the issue of whether to delay legislation until after the Copenhagen Summit. 46% of respondents believe it should be delayed. The two tables below dissect these two propositions. 13% of those who strongly believe there is a a risk of catastrophe oppose the CPRS, and 22% support delaying the legislation until after Copenhagen.
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