The Canberra Times reported last week that the ALP is scoring 61 percent of the two-party preferred vote in Eden Monaro. This seat tends to change hands with the government. The poll is a blow to those using the Antony Green election calculator which relies on an even swing across the country.

An Adelaide Advertiser poll of 575 in Sturt gives the seat to incumbent Christoper Pyne with a swing of 4.1 percentage points to him, giving him 55% of the two-party preferred vote. Pyne currently holds the seat by .09%.

Gary Morgan has released his latest poll and it appears to show no hometown advantage for Kevin Rudd with both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott preferred over him as Prime Minister in Queensland. Care needs to be taken with this poll.

The Australian has further analysis of Newspoll today which apparently shows that Labor support has slumped enough in Queensland and New South Wales to cost them the election. Dennis Shanahan puts this down to a "state of origin" effect with the sacking of Kevin Rudd being presumed to affect the Queensland vote and the elevation of Tony Abbott affecting the New South Wales vote. Interesting theory, but is it true?