The latest Nielsen poll, results published in the Fairfax papers on July 31, gives the election to the Coalition by 52% to 48%. It's at the outer edge of where the polling results have been and could be just a statistical fluke. Some commentators say the result represents too large a move and that moves like this don't happen in the real world. So why do these commentators bother with polls if they know what happens in the real world better than the polls?

The Nielsen poll is part of a pattern across all the polls which shows Labor and the Coalition neck and neck. A tightening was always likely to happen, as we saw last election with Labor's early lead evaporating. Whether the Nielsen poll is accurate we will never know because an election wasn't held over the period, but it may have an effect on the real poll.

At the moment all polling is showing that the vast majority of voters expects a Labor win. That means that they are not thinking about Tony Abbott as a future prime minister. Our qualitative polling shows that when they do think about him in terms of future prime minister he is a negative for himself.

Labor should hope for a few more polls like the Nielsen one to get their campaign back on track. There is three weeks yet to go before the election, and that is a long time for sentiment to move around.

Share this article on your favourite social bookmarking sites: