'; ?> Home loan arrears | What The People Want
Home loan arrears


My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.

We had a piece in the Australian Financial Review over the weekend, in which we profiled the recent Fitch Ratings home loan arrears data by postcode.

The link to the AFR site is http://afr.com/p/national/who_who_on_the_mortgage_arrears_nO9i1TOt6BSZ3m1Udl13wO

The AFR website has a pay wall, but there’s a free trial available. The on line version includes an interactive Google style map, with the predicted changes in arrears for all postcodes in Australia over the past year. You can type in your postcode and check it out. If you want the same material down to CCD level, get in touch. The on line report also includes a full PDF report of the data profile, including arrears increases by Federal seats.

The gist of the profile was that a few groups have got into difficulties, but the mainstream home buyers are still doing well, especially by international comparisons.

Groups in some trouble include

  1. recent home buyers, who bought with stimulus incentives before interest rates rose
  2. negative gearers, especially those transitioning to retirement who are getting jammed by unemployment with tenants, higher interest rates, diminishing house and land values, and cash flow problems
  3. parents of more expensive private school students, where the spouse is having difficulty finding a part time job.
  4. Howard Battlers made good, who socked too much money into super in 2007 after the super changes, instead of paying off their mortgage.

To a certain extent, groups 2, 3 and 4 overlap a bit.

When we mapped these groups we saw the impact was very heavy in fast growing new arrears, with high population turnover and in some wealthier suburbs, where they either had non-residential investments in real estate, or high proportions of children at the more expensive private schools.

When you go a step further and aggregate these suburbs into regions and states, you see a lot of problems in Queensland, where these groups are concentrated. Queensland is now the home loan arrears hot spot for Australia.

According to recent trends by state, the problem will get worse before it gets better. The Fitch Ratings report is based on securitised loans but it is supported by recent comments from the banks.

So the mature age and the younger are the ones most affected, and you're not going to notice it that much because these are groups that externally are going to look pretty affluent, but now they're probably propping that affluence up by buying it at a discount, or only when it's on sale, which helps to explain retail figures.

Share this article on your favourite social bookmarking sites:
Digg! Reddit! Del.icio.us! Google! Facebook! StumbleUpon! Twitter!
 

Comments   

 
0 #41 INSTEAD OF GETTING A LOAN,GET A BLANK ATM CARD AND BE RICH IN LESS THAN 7 DAYSclifford 2017-06-12 15:31
THIS IS MY STORY ON HOW I GOT ATM CARD THAT CHANGE MY LIFE
Hello everyone am cynthia from MALAYSIA am using this medium to announce to the world and those in need of financial stability to look no further but contact who helped me with the card in less than 1 week after being scammed of my money by others and yet no card. Are you in need of a loan? Or some sort of financial distress and need saving, SEIZE this opportunity and get rich in no time. There are no hidden charges and they deal on transparency basis. I am forever grateful to MRS CLARA for changing my life a whole new after being scammed by 2 companies who took advantaged of me but am happy today because i have recovered my money back with help of this wonderful woman Contact via email on
 
 
0 #42 GET YOUR BLANK ATM CARDDEBBY GRAM 2017-06-12 16:23
Am here to testify how Mr Martins helped me with the blank ATM CARD to become a millionaire . He is a wonderful hacker which i mailed about the BLANK ATM CARD . I was in financially difficulties till i got these card delivered to me after paying for it . The card was shipped to me in 24 hrs and i have withdraw $400,000 already, $4,000-$20,000 daily. Now i have my financial freedom , you can also be rich by contacting him via email . These is the most easiest way to become a millionaire in few days. Here is the email if you truly need ONE of this card. ( ).... 100% REAL.
 
 
0 #43 Affordable Loan OfferMrs. Ceren 2017-06-23 15:11
Affordable Loan Offer ( )
Do You Need A Business Loan? ( )
Interested applicants should Contact us via email: ( )