|First poll shows Rudd resurgent|
This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.
The whole release can be downloaded from here.
Big swing to the ALP after Rudd returned as leader tonight.
A special snap SMS Morgan Poll (2,530 Australian electors aged 18+) after tonight’s ALP leadership ballot shows a large swing to the ALP 49.5% (up 5%) since last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll, now just behind the L-NP 50.5% (down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership of the ALP after winning a leadership ballot against outgoing Prime Minister Julia Gillard 57-45.
The L-NP primary vote is 43% (down 4%) still clearly ahead of the ALP 38% (up 7.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 3%).
If a Federal Election were held today the result would be too close to call according to tonight’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender tonight shows both genders swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now favour the ALP (51%, up 4%) cf. L-NP (49%, down 4%) on a two party preferred basis while men favour the L-NP (52.5%, down 5.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%, up 5.5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“A special snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after the results of tonight’s ALP leadership ballot shows the ALP (49.5%, up 5%) now almost level with the L-NP (50.5%, down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the return of Kevin Rudd as the ALP leader.
“A recent Morgan Poll showed Australian electors preferred Rudd (50%) cf. Abbott (43%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ while Rudd (33%) was also favoured to lead the ALP ahead of Julia Gillard (14%).
“Rudd’s pre-ballot speech set the scene for a renewed focus on economic matters and economic management an area which is typically a ‘weak spot’ for Labor.
“Rudd’s return as leader clearly puts the pressure on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, to explain the Coalition’s policies better and put a case for why he should be elected at the coming Federal Election. Particularly important will be the Coalition’s Industrial Relations policies, also referred to by Rudd in his pre-ballot speech, and also the Coalition’s plans for getting the Australian economy moving again.
“The question is will Rudd call an early election and rely on the honeymoon period or take longer to put together his Cabinet and outline his policies to the electorate – policies which tackle a ‘failing’ economy – massive real unemployment and under-employment and falling consumer confidence.”
Electors were asked: “Now that Kevin Rudd is Leader of the ALP which party would receive your FIRST preference?”
Finding No. 4997 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted this evening via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.