A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.

While it is certainly historically possible that his party could emulate Pauline Hanson's One Nation which scored 23.1% at it's first state outing the survey doesn't say this will happen.

As reported in the paper:

But the polling, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, shows the Australian Party's prayers may have already been answered with 23 per cent of voters saying they are likely to support it at the election, due in March.

The result was not initially reflected in the survey when voting intentions were asked of the 800 participants from across the state.

However, when specifically asked whether they would back a Katter candidate, the poll found seven per cent were very likely to support them while 16 per cent said they were quite likely.

The dichotomy between the two results indicates Mr Katter and his candidates have significant work ahead to convert the flirtation with the party into solid support.

However, the combined 23 per cent, which rivals Federal Labor's support in Queensland, is well above the party's own initial expectations.

The key is that the claim rests not on a question where voters were given a list of parties for whom they could vote and asked to allocate, but an additional question where they were asked, irrespective of whom they said they were voting for, whether it was "likely" they would vote for the Australian Party.

Past experience says that respondents do not see this as a question about what they will actually do, but a question about whether they regard themselves as reasonable or not.

Afterall, if I had just told you I was voting Labor or LNP, and then you asked me whether there was a chance I would change my mind and vote for another party, to say that there was no chance makes me sounds like a one-eyed zealot.

We'll be doing our own properly constructed poll soon to see just what is happening in Queensland. Some of my well-placed sources are telling me the election will be this year, so time to get cracking.

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