|Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%|
A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.
While it is certainly historically possible that his party could emulate Pauline Hanson's One Nation which scored 23.1% at it's first state outing the survey doesn't say this will happen.
As reported in the paper:
The key is that the claim rests not on a question where voters were given a list of parties for whom they could vote and asked to allocate, but an additional question where they were asked, irrespective of whom they said they were voting for, whether it was "likely" they would vote for the Australian Party.
Past experience says that respondents do not see this as a question about what they will actually do, but a question about whether they regard themselves as reasonable or not.
Afterall, if I had just told you I was voting Labor or LNP, and then you asked me whether there was a chance I would change my mind and vote for another party, to say that there was no chance makes me sounds like a one-eyed zealot.
We'll be doing our own properly constructed poll soon to see just what is happening in Queensland. Some of my well-placed sources are telling me the election will be this year, so time to get cracking.