Julia Gillard is likely to improve Labor's chances by unifying the Parliamentary party, recognizing that there are some things that the electorate is really demanding (climate control, refugee action and an end to the fight with the mining industry).
The fact that she speaks in language that most people can understand will also help.
It would have been more difficult for her if she was facing Malcolm Turnbull or Joe Hockey.
2
Monday, 28 June 2010 14:28
John Ward
The people, who talk about ‘faceless men’ from the NSW right controlling Gillard, should consider this.
After 1945 Nazis poured into this country, protected and used by ASIO to control and monitor the growing migrant groups, with the tacit support of the Menzies and successive Liberal governments.
Lyenko Urbanchich was the most powerful, of the central and eastern European Nazi collaborators and war criminals that infiltrated the Liberal Party from the 1950s.
The peak of Urbanchich's success was the formation of the Liberal Ethnic Council.
As council president, he automatically had a seat on the state executive of the Liberal Party. David Clarke today leads the "Uglies" faction established by Urbanchich 40 years ago. The Uglies, control up to 30 per cent of the NSW Liberal Party State Council votes and are the power base of Tony Abbot, Bronwyn Bishop and of John Howard and others.
Urbanchich remained unrepentant about his pro-Nazi past. He would, however, have died happy in the knowledge that his long campaign to control the NSW Liberal Party and insinuate his extremist views into its policy agenda has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams.
3
Monday, 28 June 2010 23:54
HIllary Morris
Hey John - you have completely freaked me out. Nothing changes does it? People love Power and they love politics more!
4
Tuesday, 29 June 2010 01:33
Philip Machanick
All the polls show a rapid swing between ALP and Greens; the other changes in primary vote are within margin of error of polling.
Unless Gillard gets real on climate change and can offer something better than a magic pudding solution on sustainable population (no big Australia but we won't slow down immigration), it's hard to see how the voters who swung to Greens and back again will stay with ALP.
Maybe more people are getting clued to how they can use their preferences intelligently. The sort of swings we've been seeing will not change the composition of the lower house significantly, but if many members know they can only win by garnering 2nd prefs from Greens voters, it will pull parliament towards a more progressive agenda.
5
Tuesday, 29 June 2010 02:05
Bill Ross
On the topic of preferential voting, I always push this whenever I can. I think genuine democracy can only improve if we can get more minor parties and independents into parliament, and force the major parties into negotiation.
The number of people I come across who genuinely believe that a vote for a minor party is wasted, continues to amaze me. Our preferential voting system means you CAN vote twice! One women gave me the example of Al Gore being defeated because of Ralph Nader, and I tried to gently explain how the Australian system is different.
The second point that is not given sufficient publicity is that public funding for political parties depends on the number of first preferences that they receive. So a vote for a minor party is not only not wasted, it is giving them money.
6
Tuesday, 29 June 2010 08:04
Dion Giles
This opinion sample (of which I am one) seems to have moved very much less in Labor's direction than the samples taken by the professional pollsters with great resources available for building large and representative samples to survey. Labor bounced in the space of a few hours from what looked like certain defeat (even by Abbott) to a commanding lead.
However I would like to refer to John Ward's picture of Menzies and NSW Liberals polluting the country after the war with Nazi settlers. It should be added that Arthur Calwell as immediate postwar Immigration Minister was also credited (or should we say debited) with welcoming Nazi collaborators into Australia. Politicians not committed to democracy and human rights often allowed the "Red Scare" to blind them to what the war had been about. They haven't changed.
7
Tuesday, 29 June 2010 09:33
graham
Dion, the relatively small move in our poll sample could well be an artifact of it being almost 3 months since we last polled. Much of the deterioration in the Labor vote happened in the last month or so, since the abandonment of the ETS. Check out the graph on this article to get a better view http://www.whatthepeoplewant.net/polls-in-the-news/june-2010/no-bounce-for-gillard-newspoll.html.
Morgan has just reported today as well, and it shows the Libs winning. I suspect public opinion could be all over the place. The early Nielsen was done on the wrong days and is currently an outlier.
Check out my posts on these other polls, and what I write later on Morgan.
The fact that she speaks in language that most people can understand will also help.
It would have been more difficult for her if she was facing Malcolm Turnbull or Joe Hockey.
After 1945 Nazis poured into this country, protected and used by ASIO to control and monitor the growing migrant groups, with the tacit support of the Menzies and successive Liberal governments.
Lyenko Urbanchich was the most powerful, of the central and eastern European Nazi collaborators and war criminals that infiltrated the Liberal Party from the 1950s.
The peak of Urbanchich's success was the formation of the Liberal Ethnic Council.
As council president, he automatically had a seat on the state executive of the Liberal Party. David Clarke today leads the "Uglies" faction established by Urbanchich 40 years ago. The Uglies, control up to 30 per cent of the NSW Liberal Party State Council votes and are the power base of Tony Abbot, Bronwyn Bishop and of John Howard and others.
Urbanchich remained unrepentant about his pro-Nazi past. He would, however, have died happy in the knowledge that his long campaign to control the NSW Liberal Party and insinuate his extremist views into its policy agenda has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams.
Unless Gillard gets real on climate change and can offer something better than a magic pudding solution on sustainable population (no big Australia but we won't slow down immigration), it's hard to see how the voters who swung to Greens and back again will stay with ALP.
Maybe more people are getting clued to how they can use their preferences intelligently. The sort of swings we've been seeing will not change the composition of the lower house significantly, but if many members know they can only win by garnering 2nd prefs from Greens voters, it will pull parliament towards a more progressive agenda.
The number of people I come across who genuinely believe that a vote for a minor party is wasted, continues to amaze me. Our preferential voting system means you CAN vote twice! One women gave me the example of Al Gore being defeated because of Ralph Nader, and I tried to gently explain how the Australian system is different.
The second point that is not given sufficient publicity is that public funding for political parties depends on the number of first preferences that they receive. So a vote for a minor party is not only not wasted, it is giving them money.
However I would like to refer to John Ward's picture of Menzies and NSW Liberals polluting the country after the war with Nazi settlers. It should be added that Arthur Calwell as immediate postwar Immigration Minister was also credited (or should we say debited) with welcoming Nazi collaborators into Australia. Politicians not committed to democracy and human rights often allowed the "Red Scare" to blind them to what the war had been about. They haven't changed.
Morgan has just reported today as well, and it shows the Libs winning. I suspect public opinion could be all over the place. The early Nielsen was done on the wrong days and is currently an outlier.
Check out my posts on these other polls, and what I write later on Morgan.
Graham