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Tuesday, 20 October 2009 10:14 |
by Graham Young
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If they had a vote in the Liberal Parliamentary Party room Malcolm Turnbull would be the favoured choice of most Australians. Their second choice would be Peter Costello who resigned from parliament yesterday.
After preferences Turnbull would have won 59% of the vote.
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Tuesday, 13 October 2009 22:13 |
by Graham Young
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This morning's news was full of reports of a difference between Newspoll and AC Nielsen on who was the popularly preferred leader of the Liberal Party.
The SMH carries a story that Joe Hockey is "slightly favoured" over Malcolm Turnbull by 33% to 31%. The Australian suggests that the margin is firmer for Turnbull at 32% to 24%. One of these results is wrong, if not both, because the distance between them is larger than the sample error, but the reporting is wrong too.
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Tuesday, 01 September 2009 03:00 |
by Graham Young
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Online longitudinal studies, like the one we have been conducting since 2001 on Australian voting intentions, appear to be taking-off as a means of studying all sorts of things. The latest candidate is coronary artery disease. CLARIFY is a study that will involve 30,000 outpatients from 40 countries world-wide.
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Wednesday, 26 August 2009 15:59 |
by Graham Young
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This survey came across my desk and I thought some of our readers would find it interesting .
It was undertaken by Warren Truss, Nationals Leader and member for Wide Bay. The sample size is 5,000, according to his media release.
It covers a lot of issues, but in the context of current debates I thought some more interesting than others. In particular the findings on attitudes to global warming and an ETS may well explain the National Party's recent decision to oppose any sort of ETS in the senate.
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Sunday, 23 August 2009 13:56 |
by Graham Young
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I have been asked a number of times by respondents to these surveys to explain how the Leximancer concept maps work. Leximancer is software developed at the University of Queensland to perform analysis of text. It identifies important words in a text using statistical analysis. It then codes the blocks of text in which the words occur.
This enables flexible and powerful classification of the sort of text that we gather in our surveys, and frequently shows-up relationships that would be difficult to spot using hand-coding techniques.
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Sunday, 23 August 2009 13:38 |
by Graham Young
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As the polling figures would suggest this is quite an uneven contest, but there are some interesting undercurrents that suggest to me that in an election context perceptions could change quickly. While Labor doesn't appear to be at any risk of losing the election, expectations of an improved performance compared to last election might be too optimistic.
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Sunday, 16 August 2009 21:06 |
by Graham Young
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Fund health differently, but don't change it radically is the message from our polling on the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission's report.
We selected a number of propositions from the report and tested them, with the results in the table below. (This analysis is based on a sample of 783 respondents weighted so as to represent national voting intentions as per the latest Newspoll findings.)
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Sunday, 16 August 2009 16:34 |
by Graham Young
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Liberals give back all of their ground
According to our First Preference Indicator, over the last 10 months there has been virtually no net movement in the support for the parties. The index at September last year was set at 100 for each of Labor, Liberal and Greens. As of the period from the 29th July through to the 2nd August, the figures are Labor - 104; Liberal - 100; and Greens 106. The graph shows that this reverses the movements of our May poll when it appeared that the Liberal Party might be pulling the ALP back a little. These results are tending to shadow the movements in Newspoll and Neilsen, tending to verify that our qualitative polling is indicative of quantitative shifts in voting preference across the general community.
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Thursday, 30 July 2009 11:27 |
by Graham Young
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Our July Omnibus poll is live and can be accessed from http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=54818〈=en.
Apart from our usual questions about voting intentions, issues and leadership performance we are also looking at initial responses to the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission final report which could represent the biggest changes to medicine since Medibank.
We are also collaborating with the State Library of Victoria on a poll on reading and families with pre-school children. If you live in Victoria and have a pre-school child you can complete the survey at http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=91944〈=en.
The SLV survey will be open until midnight on Friday August 28, 2009 and everyone who enters will be eligible to be entered into a draw for $500 worth of children's books.
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