After 5 weeks they're back where they started

Tuesday, 17 August 2010 03:09 | by Administrator

The chart below shows the zero-based movements in the party first preference votes. The Greens have actually suffered a slight decline over the course of the election, but the Labor and Liberal parties moved apart in the middle and have now come back together.

My interpretation of this is that the Government probably has around 52 to 53 percent of the two-party preferred vote, which makes it highly unlikely that swings in marginal seats will deliver up government to the opposition.

Relative_Party_Support

I have put the unadjusted tables below. There has been slight movement to Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, and both Abbott's and Gillard's net approvals have risen very modestly. Absent a really big event Labor should be easily returned. But just to make sure I'll have a look at marginals later in the week.

Preferred_PM_Comparison_10_08_17