Labor slides four points since election called
Saturday, 07 August 2010 08:45 | by Graham Young



As we do these polls for qualitative rather than quantitative reasons I wouldn't swear that this is the result, but it is interesting that the samples are consistent enough to more or less mirror what is happening in the polls which are designed to do quantitative analysis.

This is the table with the first preference votes from the total sample:

 

first_pref_comparison_10_08_06

The only significant movements have been in the Liberal and Labor votes. Rounding accounts for the difference betwen -3% and +4%.

This is reflected in the two-party preferred vote.

2pp_comparison_10_08_06

At the same time there is a much faster deterioration in Julia Gillard's position as preferred Prime Minister.

Preferred_PM_Comparison_10_08_06

And an even faster one in her approval ratings.

gillard_approval_comparison_10_08_06

Which is almost equalled by the increase in Tony Abbott's approvals.

abbott_approval_comparison_10_08_06

While 59% of our sample would vote Labor on a two-party preferred basis they disapprove of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott almost equally. Abbott polarises voters a bit more with slightly more in the "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove" categories and a few less in the "neither approve nor disapprove" and "unsure" categories.

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