(For the technically inclined the number of respondents is roughly 679 for each sample. It varies by a few, because not everyone answers every question.)

The last time we got a two-party preferred result on our polls like this was in the Brisbane City Council election when Campbell Newman won convincingly.

If these swings that are implied from our research persist until election day, then it will be a big rout for Labor. A uniform swing of 5% against them means they would lose the seats of Chatsworth, Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Whitsunday, Toowoomba North, Southport, Townsville, Pumicestone, Springwood, Cairns, Mansfield, Ferny Grove, Albert, Pine Rivers, Kallangur, Mt Ommaney, and Burleigh. However, seats above that figure that have been won by the coalition in the past include Mt Coot-tha, Redcillfe, Mt Isa, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Stafford (when it was Everton), Keppel, Mulgrave and Yerongpilly (when it was Yeronga). That's a total ot 29 prospective seats.

Voters are also dissatisfied with the direction in which the state is heading. Only 17% are happy with the direction, while 75% aren't.

The nub of the problem for Labor appears to be Premier Anna Bligh. Her approval rating on our figures is 16% and her total disapproval 76% giving her a net approval of -60%. Langbroek is going a bit better with 25% approving and a relatively modest 34% disapproving, which means his approval rating is still negative at -10%..

This means there is some hope for Labor. They are doing poorly, but their opponents are not doing well either.

The graph below illustrates the relative approval and disapproval figures.

We also asked voters who they approved of as premier. When asked to choose between Anna Bligh and John-Paul Langbroek, 48% went for Langbroek, 41% for Bligh as preferred premier, but 21% were unsure. So Langbroek would likely be the replacement, but with less than a 50% endorsement. That gives Bligh a little bit of hope, but not much.

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