First preference index tips up
Sunday, 25 July 2010 05:03 | by Graham Young



Our first preference index has gone down for the Labor Party. This is different from the quantitative polling done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan suggests. I'm betting this means that support for Labor will fall over the course of the election. While our respondents generally come to the same conclusions as the average voter because our respondents think about politics more than average they often come to those conclusions ealier.

Note: I'm not predicting a Liberal win. I expect Labor to win. But I do think the margin will narrow in the next weeks. I also don't think that the Labor position is very strong. As you can see from the graph they are bleeding supporters to the left to the Greens. But support for Tony Abbott is not strong either.

FPI_July_2010_500px

While the index is about first preferences, to make the relationship between the Greens and the ALP clearer I have overlaid a plot of the two-party preferred vote over Greens and Labor graphs.

FPI_2PP_July_2010_500px

Bear in mind that these graphs are zero-based against September 2009 when Labor was on around 56% of the two-party preferred vote.

 

 

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