Liberal leadership looks like two-horse race
Tuesday, 13 October 2009 22:13 | by Graham Young



Anyone notice that neither of these polls adds up to anywhere near 100%? That's because one puts Tony Abbott into the mix who garnered a respectable percentage of the vote, and then there were people who were undecided.

Nielsen's actual figures were 33% Hockey, 31% Turnbull and 21% Abbott. Newspoll had two sets of figures. Their first preferences were 24% Hockey, 32% Turnbull and 16% Abbott. But Newspoll then eliminated Abbott and asked voters how they would vote, which resulted in Abbott's support splitting almost evenly and a final result of Turnbull 39% and Hockey 31%.

If I was going to be pedantic I'd also insist that you eliminate the uncommitted factor and count the votes on the basis of those who expressed a preference. This would give Turnbul 56% of the Newspoll figure.

From this it appears that Turnbull's support is significantly eroding in the community, and if Abbott is a proxy for the right wing voter, both Hockey and Turnbull are gaining more or less even support from that quarter. This could make for an interesting Christmas season. Nothing like a two horse race to get political journalists interested, particularly when there is little else to write about.

I'll be interested to see what our poll comes up with.

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