Roy Morgan research reports that the Liberals are just ahead of Labor in Victoria with 50.5% of the two-party preferred vote. This is despite ALP Premier John Brumby being preferred as premier by 50.5% over Ted Baillieu, the Opposition leader who is preferred by only 30.5%. ALP first preference support of 37.5% was well below the Liberal Party's support of 42%. The poll was taken betwen February 17 and 28th.

The latest Newspoll, taken over the 26-28 February, shows little change in the party votes since last election. This ought to be a concern to the ALP as the polls have consistently over-estimated their real level of support between elections.

It seemed the perfect issue for the government. Not only was it the “greatest moral challenge of our time” but it had the potential to wedge the Coalition and distract it from campaigning on issues where it could win votes.

(From The Australian February 13, 2010. An analysis of polling here and around the world on global warming).

Roy Morgan's latest poll has the government down one percentage point. This is not statistically significant. It is also not inconsistent with our polling, which is statistically significant.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll conducted last weekend shows a slight tightening between the Rudd Government (56.5%, down 1%) and the L-NP Opposition (43.5%, up 1%).

“Dominating much of the news over the past two weeks has been Environment Minister Peter Garret’s conduct of the home insulation rebate scheme. Opposition calls for Garrett to resign for mismanaging the scheme have so far fallen on deaf ears and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has now taken full responsibility for the scheme himself.

Read more