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Our Polls

A Queensland election today would probably produce a hung parliament.

According to the latest Galaxy Poll the Queensland government would receive 53% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis if an election were held now. This could be enough for them to scrape a bare win, or potentially face a hung parliament. This is because the electoral system incorporates around a 2.5% bias towards Labor, or at least it did before the last election.

What we think of the leaders - December 2013 qual

We don't really think that much of either leader. While Abbott had some moments of relative popularity during the Gillard and Rudd governments, that was because they were even less popular than he is. Perhaps this loathing of political leaders is feeding into an irritation with the political system as a whole.


December 2013 - First Pref Qual

Voters at the margin (which is where all votes change and all elections are won) have changed their minds about Tony Abbott, but the reasons for voting for or against the government channel the last election. The winners want Abbott to clean-up the "mess", and the losers think he should be continuing the work of the previous government.


December polling - voting quants

One explanation for the drop in the Liberal vote and the increase in Labor vote, reported in our last post, is the standing of the leaders. At the last election Kevin Rudd was the most disliked prime minister since we began our polling. That seems to have made Tony Abbott look pretty good at the time. 


Government and opposition votes converging

According to our First Preference Index, Liberal and Labor votes are back to levels of support last seen in September/October 2010, which means you couldn't be sure who would win an election at the moment on a two-party preferred basis.


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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.


A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.


Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.


Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.


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