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New South Wales 2015: qual

 If the Liberal Party wins this state election they might owe as much of their success to Sydney traffic as they owe to Mike Baird's high approval rating.

New South Wales 2015: quants

The New South Wales election result looks like it will be much different from the Queensland one. This may be partly because voters have seen in Queensland that governments can lose large majorities in just one term.


Foley can undo Baird

The New South Wales coalition government is not impregnable. It may have won 64.2% of the two-party preferred vote at the last election, but that is not their real margin.


Why minor party voters preferenced against the LNP

What our quantitative polling told us was that the minor party preference vote was crucial to this election and it eventually settled with Labor. What I'm going to attempt to answer in this post is why that happened.


Minor parties went pop

The success of Labor in wooing smaller party voters is quite marked in a longitudinal analysis of our Queensland election poll results.

While there was no statistically significant movement in voting intention across the entire sample, there was significant movement within the votes of those voting for minor parties or independents.


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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.

Comments   

 
0 #1 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:00
wooo poll shows :oops:

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0 #2 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:01
 

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.


A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.


Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.


Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.


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