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Newman needs to raise ALP Ghosts

If Campbell Newman's campaign doesn't start focussing on the opposition and their previous record in government, then it may well hand Labor government on the back of antagonism from non-Greens minor party voters.

Queensland election 2015: the qual

 The qual shows that voters are not enthusiastic about either of the parties. When thinking of the LNP, their disappointment, and even anger, is directed at Campbell Newman. However, when thinking of the ALP, their focus is a bit more diffused. The Leximancer maps below plus verbatims tell the story.


Queensland election 2015: the quants

Campbell Newman has his back against the wall with Labor currently close enough to take government on a uniform swing. This analysis is based on 603 responses from our qualitative panel.


Victorian election results

The first thing that should be said is that the Victorian election result was a confirmation that neither of the two major parties is held in high regard. Last election the Liberals scored 38% of the vote, this election it was Labor on 38%.

There was actually more enthusiasm for the Liberal leader, Denis Napthine, than for the Labor leader, according to Newspoll, with Napthine being favoured by 41% to 37%. This is within the statistical margin of error, and 22% were unable to say who they preferred, making it a very weak preference for either.


Leaders and the qual

The qualitative results on the approvals for Abbott and Shorten, as well as preferred prime minister undercut the results from the quants.

While the quants suggest Labor is doing much better than the Liberals, the qual suggests that Bill Shorten's position is not very strong and that the results on all three issues are governed by reactions for and against Tony Abbott.


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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.

Comments   

 
0 #1 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:00
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0 #2 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:01
 

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.


A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.


Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.


Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.


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