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Why minor party voters preferenced against the LNP

What our quantitative polling told us was that the minor party preference vote was crucial to this election and it eventually settled with Labor. What I'm going to attempt to answer in this post is why that happened.

Minor parties went pop

The success of Labor in wooing smaller party voters is quite marked in a longitudinal analysis of our Queensland election poll results.

While there was no statistically significant movement in voting intention across the entire sample, there was significant movement within the votes of those voting for minor parties or independents.


Why swingers voted in Queensland

This analysis is based on the 24 respondents from our exit survey who identified as having changed their vote since last election, or who normally vote LNP but this time voted for the ALP. These were the voters who decided the election, so why they changed their vote is the best gauge of what really happened.


Newman needs to raise ALP Ghosts

If Campbell Newman's campaign doesn't start focussing on the opposition and their previous record in government, then it may well hand Labor government on the back of antagonism from non-Greens minor party voters.


Queensland election 2015: the qual

 The qual shows that voters are not enthusiastic about either of the parties. When thinking of the LNP, their disappointment, and even anger, is directed at Campbell Newman. However, when thinking of the ALP, their focus is a bit more diffused. The Leximancer maps below plus verbatims tell the story.


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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.

Comments   

 
0 #1 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:00
wooo poll shows :oops:

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0 #2 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:01
 

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.


A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.


Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.


Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.


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