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Deep-seated attitudes to migration pose problems for new PM

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has inherited a nation deeply divided on issues around immigration, refugee policy and arrivals from Islamic countries, research by the Australian Institute for Progress has revealed.

New South Wales election: how the conversation went

It’s a truism that voters vote against the party they most dislike and for the party they least dislike. So our elections are grudge matches where the winner is only grudgingly approved. Or that’s the way it usually is.

New South Wales exit poll quants

On their own the quantitative results from the exit poll don't tell us a lot, but comparing them to the first set of results tells us how effective the campaigns were.

New South Wales 2015: qual

 If the Liberal Party wins this state election they might owe as much of their success to Sydney traffic as they owe to Mike Baird's high approval rating.

New South Wales 2015: quants

The New South Wales election result looks like it will be much different from the Queensland one. This may be partly because voters have seen in Queensland that governments can lose large majorities in just one term.

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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.


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0 #2 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:01

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.

A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.

Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.

Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.

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