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Leaders and the qual

The qualitative results on the approvals for Abbott and Shorten, as well as preferred prime minister undercut the results from the quants.

While the quants suggest Labor is doing much better than the Liberals, the qual suggests that Bill Shorten's position is not very strong and that the results on all three issues are governed by reactions for and against Tony Abbott.

May polling - the quants

After weighting our sample for likely voting intentions there are some strong messages for both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Voters are actually not impressed with either - a continuation of the trend from the last parliament.


Budget bad for Libs, great for Greens, not so good for Labor

FPI 14 05 15 ThumbOur First Preference Index - a measure of how voting intention moves in our unweighted sample - shows the Greens being big winners from the budget.


Budget sinks, but budget measures float, while government is seen as uncaring

As far as voters are concerned it would appear that this budget is worse than the sum of its parts.

Budget Approval Longitudinal 2014When asked about the budget in toto it is even less popular than Wayne Swan's "tough" 2012 budget. 57% disapprove of this budget compared to 50% who approved of his, although Swan's support at 35% was a little lower than Hockey's at 39%.


A Queensland election today would probably produce a hung parliament.

According to the latest Galaxy Poll the Queensland government would receive 53% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis if an election were held now. This could be enough for them to scrape a bare win, or potentially face a hung parliament. This is because the electoral system incorporates around a 2.5% bias towards Labor, or at least it did before the last election.


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Polls in the News

First poll shows Rudd resurgent

This post is a reproduction of the Morgan Media release. Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of voters. I'm unclear on the methodology, and the track record, so the result should be treated cautiously.

Comments   

 
0 #1 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:00
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0 #2 RE: First poll shows Rudd resurgentangga 2014-08-29 12:01
 

ANZ Job Ads September 2011

The ANZ Job Ads Index for September shows a decline month-on-month and a deceleration in growth year on year. If you're wondering how this could be, it means that year-on-year only looks good because of the growth in the earlier part of the year.


A more likely Katter figure

"Win over Ashgrove voters? Can Do" according the the Brisbane Times and a poll by ReachTEL, meaning that Campbell Newman is likely to win Ashgrove with a substantial margin.


Polling question concocted to show Katter on 25%

A Galaxy poll reported in The Courier Mail yesterday said that Bob Katter's Australian Party could possibly score 25% of the vote at the next state election. The question is poorly worded and the result almost certainly wrong.


Home loan arrears

My colleague John Black has done some interesting analysis of home loan arrears which could go some way to explaining why Labor is in trouble in Queensland more than most other states - because it picks Queensland as a home arrears hotspot.


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