No bounce for Gillard - Newspoll
Monday, 28 June 2010 03:02 | by Internet Thinking



Newspoll confirms that so far there has been no honeymoon for Gillard. Their latest figures show Labor bottoming in May with a slow rebound since then. With a two-party preferred vote of 53% to the Liberals 47% it doesn't quite reach their mid-April standing.

I've plotted the most recent movements in the two-party preferred figures as well as one data point mid year in 2009 and 2008. I've also overlaid a linear trendline. I should point out that the trendline is there not to show trends - this is a pretty meaningless concept in political polling - but to provide a reference point to show how individual figures stand in relation to each other.

Newspoll_Election2007_to_June_2010_2pp

The last data point is the only one attributable to Julia Gillard, and comes at the end of a series where Labor's vote was improving under Kevin Rudd.

So Gillard saves a situation that according to the polling didn't exactly need saving, and takes the ALP vote back to more or less the same place it was earlier this year. This is pretty much what our qualitative panel told us.

Where the story does differ is that on primaries Labor has recovered a lot of Greens defectors, while on our poll these people have maintained their allegiance to the Greens.

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