The Canberra Times reported last week that the ALP is scoring 61 percent of the two-party preferred vote in Eden Monaro. This seat tends to change hands with the government. The poll is a blow to those using the Antony Green election calculator which relies on an even swing across the country.

The poll had a sample of 405, so sampling error at 50% is 4.87. It was taken in the first week of the poll, so the more detailed results are out of date. It showed the gender split which was so prevalent at the time with 50 percent of women choosing Labor and only 44 percent of men.

Kelly (Labor) had 53% first preferences, David Gazzard (Liberal) had 36% while the Greens Catherine Moore had 9%.

Labor was seen as the better party for health, education, industrial relations and the environment, while the Coalition led on the economy and asylum seekers.

It's an old poll and I should have got it up earlier. Things may have deteriorated for Kelly since then.

H/T to Jo Page

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