Morgan comes back to earth

Gary Morgan is back to getting results closer to what everyone thinks the result is likely to be. His latest poll shows a swing back to the Coalition of 6.5 points in just a week and a two-party preferred vote to Labor of 51%.

There's a little bit of a pattern occurring here. Morgan's face-to-face polls generally show a better Labor vote than his telephone polls. Labor HQ must be happy that his headline figure says the election will be close. One of the things they will be battling in this last week of the campaign is the widespread perception that they are going to win.

Voters are telling me in my qualitative polling that they think that Abbott has excelled himself in his campaign and done surprisingly well. They are also telling me that they like/dislike Tony and Julia almost equally.

It's possible that voters may try to reward both leaders. If they think Gillard is going to win, even though they think with their heads that she should be the winner, they may well give Abbott a vote for trying so hard and being a good sport. This can look like a risk free strategy if you strongly expect one side to win.

And if you like both of the kids, or at least think they're more or less equal, you'll want to make sure they both get something.

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