The SMH reports that the latest Nielsen Poll (taken mid-last week) shows essentially no change in the votes of the government and opposition. Two-party preferred is 49% to 51% (government to opposition) and first preference votes are 44% Coalition, 36% Labor and 13% Greens.

What has moved significantly is expectations of who will win the election. Now only 55% think Labor will win (down 14 points in a week), while 31% now predict a Coalition win (up 10 points in a week). Both the government and opposition leader are basically rated the same for trustworthiness and job approval, although there is a small edge to Julia Gillard.

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