No hometown effect for Rudd - Morgan

Gary Morgan has released his latest poll and it appears to show no hometown advantage for Kevin Rudd with both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott preferred over him as Prime Minister in Queensland. Care needs to be taken with this poll.

While it supports my own research, the number of respondents from Queensland would have been around 122. That makes the margin of error 8.9% and therefore large enough to account for all the differences.

Morgan reports:

 

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll reveals a worrying trend for Prime Minister Julia Gillard and the ALP Government. In the key States of New South Wales and Queensland in which the Federal Election will be won and lost, Abbott leads both Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
“Despite much talk about Rudd’s popularity in his home State that belief is not reflected when electors are actually asked who they prefer. In Queensland Abbott (53%) is clearly preferred as Prime Minister to Rudd (39%) — a lead of 14%. Abbott (49%) is also clearly preferred over Gillard (36%).
“The news in recent days that Rudd is keen to help campaign for the Gillard Government is an election ‘sleeper.’ Although both trail Abbott individually in Queensland and New South Wales will the images of Rudd & Gillard campaigning together help to bury the perception in much of the community that Gillard ‘knifed’ Rudd in the back to become Prime Minister and will these displays of unity make the Gillard Government more competitive in Queensland and New South Wales?

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll reveals a worrying trend for Prime Minister Julia Gillard and the ALP Government. In the key States of New South Wales and Queensland in which the Federal Election will be won and lost, Abbott leads both Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

 

“Despite much talk about Rudd’s popularity in his home State that belief is not reflected when electors are actually asked who they prefer. In Queensland Abbott (53%) is clearly preferred as Prime Minister to Rudd (39%) — a lead of 14%. Abbott (49%) is also clearly preferred over Gillard (36%).

 

“The news in recent days that Rudd is keen to help campaign for the Gillard Government is an election ‘sleeper.’ Although both trail Abbott individually in Queensland and New South Wales will the images of Rudd & Gillard campaigning together help to bury the perception in much of the community that Gillard ‘knifed’ Rudd in the back to become Prime Minister and will these displays of unity make the Gillard Government more competitive in Queensland and New South Wales?"

 

 

I don't think the image of unity is likely to work, but perhaps our polls will give me some clues in the next week.

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