Roy Morgan polling whiplashes

It's hard to believe that this could be correct, but Roy Morgan says the ALP surged by 7.5% last weekend from 50% on Tuesday the previous week to 57.5%. I don't know of any polls that can confirm this, so it might just be a continuation of Morgan's track which is to give the ALP a higher vote than any other poll.

 

The poll also shows the Greens national vote at 15.5%

Gary Morgan speculates as to what could be behind these results, and doesn't sound like he believes them much himself. He also points out that the Greens may even win a lower house seat in Melbourne. Morgan is promising local polls in coming days. This will be interesting, particularly is he polls inner metropolitan seats to see how the Greens are doing.

"Last weekend's Face-to-Face Morgan Poll showed a strong jump in ALP support (57.5%, up 7.5% from August 3, 2010) as Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd got set to meet and reconcile in Brisbane, and then campaign together; well ahead of the L-NP (42.5%, down 7.5%). The effect was strongest in Queensland with the ALP (62%, up 11%) cf. L-NP (38%, down 11%) gaining very strongly on a Two-Party preferred basis.
"As well as the reconciliation between Gillard & Rudd, the RBA's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.5% and the likelihood that interest rates will not be raised in the near-term also provided a positive boost to the Government support — further backed up by the latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating— showing Consumer Confidence rising 4.8 pts to a six-month high of 129.0.
"However, despite this positive sentiment, the boost to the ALP will be temporary after pictures of Gillard & Rudd together which appeared later on the weekend clearly showed how uncomfortable they were with the situation — and there has been no campaigning together in Queensland.
"Today's Morgan Poll shows the renewed strength in the Greens vote (15.5%, up 4.5% and now at its highest ever recorded in a Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention). The rise in the Greens vote this close to the Federal Election is clearly worrying for the ALP as it attempts to hold onto inner urban seats that are at risk — most prominently the seat of Melbourne, now vacated by former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner. The Greens require a swing of only 4.7% to pick up Melbourne, and today's Morgan Poll shows that there is every chance the Greens will achieve this."
"Last weekend's Face-to-Face Morgan Poll showed a strong jump in ALP support (57.5%, up 7.5% from August 3, 2010) as Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd got set to meet and reconcile in Brisbane, and then campaign together; well ahead of the L-NP (42.5%, down 7.5%). The effect was strongest in Queensland with the ALP (62%, up 11%) cf. L-NP (38%, down 11%) gaining very strongly on a Two-Party preferred basis.
"As well as the reconciliation between Gillard & Rudd, the RBA's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.5% and the likelihood that interest rates will not be raised in the near-term also provided a positive boost to the Government support — further backed up by the latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating— showing Consumer Confidence rising 4.8 pts to a six-month high of 129.0.
"However, despite this positive sentiment, the boost to the ALP will be temporary after pictures of Gillard & Rudd together which appeared later on the weekend clearly showed how uncomfortable they were with the situation — and there has been no campaigning together in Queensland.
"Today's Morgan Poll shows the renewed strength in the Greens vote (15.5%, up 4.5% and now at its highest ever recorded in a Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention). The rise in the Greens vote this close to the Federal Election is clearly worrying for the ALP as it attempts to hold onto inner urban seats that are at risk — most prominently the seat of Melbourne, now vacated by former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner. The Greens require a swing of only 4.7% to pick up Melbourne, and today's Morgan Poll shows that there is every chance the Greens will achieve this."
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