It's official - honeymoon non-event

Nielsen has now reported its second poll since the Gillard ascent and they are now in line with everyone else, including Galaxy, who also report today. Ignore the newspaper headlines. What they essentially show is that Labor is polling at around its level of April this year, and the election in 2007 with 52% of the two-party preferred vote. This is in line with what our online polling was suggesting just after Gillard took the leadership.

Galaxy has a truncated report - you have to buy the Courier Mail to get the details - but shows a decline in Labor's primary vote to 39 percent against the Coalition's 42 percent. It finds that two-thirds back her plan on refugees, although 60% believe it was "rushed through". They fail to ask the critical question as to whether this will change anyone's vote. My analysis published in The Australian suggests not.

Nielsen has more details online. It shows that the Coalition is regarded as best to handle the refugee issue (34 percent to 25 percent) and the economy (53 percent to 39 percent). Labor is ahead on health, education, the environment and industrial relations. It's two-party preferred result is also 52/48, with Labor on 39 percent primary and the Coalition on 42 percent - identical to Galaxy's.

Both polls show a resurgence of the Greens.

Nielsen showed a strong surge in Labor support after Gillard's election giving them 55 percent of the two-party preferred vote and 47 percent on primaries. While the SMH headline says "Gillard defies errors to firm election lead" the body of the article talks about an 8% fall in primary vote.

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