Newspoll puts Abbott on slide

The first Newspoll of the election suggests a strong swing to Labor as the election is called giving it a 10 point lead over the Coalition on two-party preferred. This sounds unlikely. Given Newspoll's sample size a 55/45 result is the same as a 52/48 result, which feels more likely. Nielsen appears to have had a rogue poll early in the Gillard leadership. Now it could be Newspoll's turn.

We'll get a better idea when the next poll is done by Nielsen or Galaxy. Galaxy's last poll, which was conducted after the election was called, had the Coalition and Labor even on 50 percent each. These two polls are actually more or less consistent. Galaxy has been using smaller samples, but even applying the same sample error as applies to Newspoll you get a potential 53% to 47% result.

However, some of the other movements in Newspoll are larger and therefore may be giving an accurate indication of what is happening with questions like preferred leader.

Newspoll highlight results are:

  • Labor primary 42% (unchanged), Coalition primary 38% (down 2 points)
  • Two party preferred 55% to 45% (net move of 2 points)
  • Gillard approvals: 48% satisfied, 29% dissatisfied, 23% uncommitted
  • Abbott approvals: 36% satisfied, 51% dissatisfied, 13% uncommitted
  • Preferred PM 57% Gillard, 27% Abbott and 16% uncommitted
  • Best to handle economy Labor 42% to 41%
  • Best to handle climate change Labor 31% to 25%
  • Best to handle asylum seekers Coalition 39% to 29%

The most significant movement has been in disapproval of Tony Abbott which has increased by 10% in the last month or so.

If Abbott continues to run a presidential style campaign on this polling it is difficult to see him prevailing, or even doing well, even given my reservations about its complete accuracy.

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0 #1 I wonder at the accuracy of any poll. I David Thomas 2010-07-19 16:00
I wonder at the accuracy of any poll. I was asked to comment once last year and declined to comment at all. The poll that subsequently came out did not even mention 'undecided' let alone 'declined to answer'. These polls may give an indication but they cannot possibly be accurate. Their real power must surely lie in influencing people to believe that 'x' rather than 'y' will happen?
0 #2 Best to handle the economy Labor 42% to Arjay 2010-07-20 18:49
Best to handle the economy Labor 42% to 41% Coalition? Is our electorate that profoundly ill informed and stupid that they cannot decipher fact from reality.

I don't like either of the major parties but at least the Coalition has a sound track record on fiscal responsibility. Our inept education system has a lot to answer for.

We desperately need a new political force that does not take corporate donations and serves the people.
0 #3 Arjay-you forget that every year of coalGee Jay 2010-07-23 16:27
Arjay-you forget that every year of coalition gov.was a boom year ..Labor years have been bust years right around the world!!