No swing to Labor in Queensland marginals

Galaxy has released a poll commissioned by the WWF that shows virtually no movement in Labor's vote in four Brisbane marginal seats since the last election. Of the four seats Brisbane (ALP 4.6%) and Petrie (ALP 4.2%) are held by the Labor Party and Ryan (Lib 1.2%) and Bowman (Lib 0.1%) by the Libs. AAP reports this as a 3.5% swing to Labor, but this is with reference to their last poll in these seats in mid-June.


The poll was of 1600 voters and was conducted last weekend. I'm also unsure whether the polling used candidate names as well. Incumbency does count in local electorates, and a popular incumbent may score much higher than the generic party vote. Accurate polling results depend on incumbency cancelling itself out across an area.

WWF used it to boost the standing of an emissions trading scheme. 74% of respondents wanted a scheme, an increase of 4% from June last year.


This poll essentially confirms other polling that there has been no change since last election in the standing of the parties.

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0 #1 That should read 'No swing to Coalition Kevin Rennie 2010-07-22 11:24
That should read 'No swing to Coalition in Qld marginals since last election".
0 #2 You could go either way Kevin, or just lGraham Young 2010-07-22 11:48
You could go either way Kevin, or just leave it at "No swing". I was reacting to the newspaper reports which were misleadingly claiming a swing to Labor. There was a swing, but only since the last time they polled these seats, when Kevin Rudd was at his lowest, more or less.