Galaxy close to OLO result

The Galaxy poll published in The Sunday Mail today appears closer to our results than Nielsen as they show a small bounce to Labor, but not a huge one. The two-party preferred margin is 52 to 48 - a solid election win.

 

Galaxy makes much of the fact that 78% of voters feel that Rudd was treated harshly. This is really an irrelevant question, although many of my Labor friends are expressing similar sentiments. If the choice was between being nice to Kevin and losing the election and being harsh to him and winning, then surely a Labor supporter would ultimately have to favour the second. The proof of whether the move was effective or not is whether it has changed votes to Labor, which it has.

 

Labor may have difficulties because the votes have come from third parties, and not the Liberals.

Julia Gillard is definitely being judged by voters at the moment, and as they dig a bit deeper the third party vote may rebound. Stories like Anti-Green Putsch Down Under: Climate Change Delayers Topple Rudd and How Abbott found an unexpected ally over climate change in the Gang of Four could easily damage her with Greens voters. She's also going to be hard put to find a compromise with the miners that delivers the boost to the budget.

 

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