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No bounce for Gillard - Newspoll
Monday, 28 June 2010 13:02 | Written by Internet Thinking

Newspoll confirms that so far there has been no honeymoon for Gillard. Their latest figures show Labor bottoming in May with a slow rebound since then. With a two-party preferred vote of 53% to the Liberals 47% it doesn't quite reach their mid-April standing.

I've plotted the most recent movements in the two-party preferred figures as well as one data point mid year in 2009 and 2008. I've also overlaid a linear trendline. I should point out that the trendline is there not to show trends - this is a pretty meaningless concept in political polling - but to provide a reference point to show how individual figures stand in relation to each other.

Newspoll_Election2007_to_June_2010_2pp

The last data point is the only one attributable to Julia Gillard, and comes at the end of a series where Labor's vote was improving under Kevin Rudd.

So Gillard saves a situation that according to the polling didn't exactly need saving, and takes the ALP vote back to more or less the same place it was earlier this year. This is pretty much what our qualitative panel told us.

Where the story does differ is that on primaries Labor has recovered a lot of Greens defectors, while on our poll these people have maintained their allegiance to the Greens.

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Comments   

 
0 #1 it will soon become obvious i think that — robert humphreys 2010-06-29 00:10
it will soon become obvious i think that Gillard will not take any real action on climate change (as the Australian people want) nor will she repudiate the xenophobic driven mistreatment of asylum seekers but rather pander to vested interests with the former and the rednecks in the NSW and Qld marginal seats. The Greens are the only party that has a demonstrated record for sticking to principles of justice, compassion and social equity. In time, I believe the Labor party will wither away into obscurity. It no longer represents a progressive standpoint in the Australian political spectrum. The steady growth of support for the Greens is a sign of this seachange slowly but surely underway in our country. It continues despite repeated dirty tricks by other political parties.
 
 
0 #2 Dream on, Robert. People have been predi — Phil 2010-06-30 12:32
Dream on, Robert. People have been predicting the demise of the Labor Party for a hundred years, mate. I don't think sea-changes happen slowly and I don't think the Greens are ever going to be more than a skilful third party which benefits cleverly from the 'all care and no responsibility' syndrome. And they'll find it hard to replace the very capable Bob Brown when he finally retires.
More generally, people who see themselves as highly progressive always find it difficult to recognise that they will always be a thinking minority which refuses to accept that the majority is almost always anything BUT progressive. It was ever thus and ever more shall be!