Gary Morgan has been polling marginal seats and finds a significant number would revert to the Coalition. What he doesn't highlight is that across all of his seats there is virtually no movement since the last election. This supports the thesis that there is no Gillard honeymoon. By only polling Labor-held marginals he also introduces a pro-Coalition bias into his sample.

It's getting hard to draw a bead on exactly where the Gillard coup has positioned Labor with the latest opinion poll, this time from Gary Morgan, showing the Liberals ahead of Labor by 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party vote. Morgan also shows Gillard leading Abbott as preferred Prime Minister by 49% to 34%, although 48% percent approve of the job that Tony Abbott is doing compared to 40% who approve of Julia's performance.

Newspoll confirms that so far there has been no honeymoon for Gillard. Their latest figures show Labor bottoming in May with a slow rebound since then. With a two-party preferred vote of 53% to the Liberals 47% it doesn't quite reach their mid-April standing.

The Galaxy poll published in The Sunday Mail today appears closer to our results than Nielsen as they show a small bounce to Labor, but not a huge one. The two-party preferred margin is 52 to 48 - a solid election win.