Newspoll and Morgan confirm our polling

Morgan has Labor at 54.5% to the Coalitions 45.5% and Newspoll has it 50/50 two-party preferred. That confirms our polling of last week where the positions of the parties had returned to where they were in October 2010.

The results, averaging these two polls, would be somewhere around a 52.5% Labor victory. It could be a bit lower than that, as Morgan uses a mix of face-to-face, SMS and Internet polling. I suspect the second two capture enthusiasm to some extent, as well as voting intention.

But, however you read it, the odds favour a Labor victory.

What that means is that expectations, which now favour a coalition victory (as demonstrated in the betting markets which give Labor only around a 25% chance of winning), will now start to favour Labor. And when that happens voters will start to think about what another term of Labor would mean.

A Rudd government at the next election would lead to nine years of Labor government, assuming that the parliament after this runs its full term. That would make it one of the longest-running governments in Australia's history.

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Comments   

 
+2 #21 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our pollingYves 2013-07-29 17:09
Norma Daisley seets a perfect example why so many are afraid of an Abbott PMship - his abusive supporters mean an abusive PM. Everyone but their sainted selves are idiots; experts in everything - climate change (what would a bunch of those edjumaketed scientists know?), economists, political analysts. Just bloody awful loud mouthed bullies.
 
 
-6 #22 #21 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our polling — Yvesscott 2013-07-29 19:22
Are you talking about the scientist that said that CFCs are making the ozone layer hole get bigger??

You know when everyone said the same thing back then NO.

Well that hole is now much smaller because them people you talk of, got it right.

Ether way if we get it wrong its to late. There is only 1 thing 2 do then.
 
 
+3 #23 Fascissocialism 's a Psychosis!Brian Richard Allen 2013-07-29 19:51
Trust M. Yves has a mirror handy as he demonstrates the Fascissocialism Psychosis's definitive morbid Denial and pathological Projection.

And evil's banality.
 
 
+7 #24 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our pollingJim 2013-07-30 12:23
Tony Abbott is on the record as saying that "the function of opposition is to oppose!". BUT surely an opposition’s job is to hold a government to account and to show a worthy alternative.
Mr Abbott is also said to be the 'most effective opposition leader the country has ever had'. BUT my grandmother had a cockatoo that could repeat 3 word phrases. "Stop the boats!" -"Stop the boats!" "I'm a pretty Polly!"
 
 
+14 #25 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our pollingGillian 2013-07-30 15:56
I do not agree with Tony Abbott that an oppositions job is just to oppose. Their job is to offer an alternative to the current government. Its easy just to oppose something. Much harder to come up with something better & more effective. This is the worst opposition leader we have ever had.
 
 
+2 #26 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our pollingDion Giles 2013-08-05 12:49
Congratulations on your sampling and the way it seems to match the spread of view2s across the population. BTW, Jim and Gillian (above) are absolutely right. The Libs had a leader and let an organised and connected mafia blindside them.
 
 
-4 #27 MrSadsak 2013-08-05 14:04
Nothing changes if nothing changes.
We can't afford to go on the way we are ,increasing debt, higher unemployment,re ducing social security(single mums),mining and manufacturing in retreat, small business buggered,Produc tive farming struggling, and good Australian men being killed , whilst dingo drones from their countries jumping on boats and jumping the queue of the millions sitting in refugee camps around the world
Get a grip the lot of you
 
 
-1 #28 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our pollingJim 2013-08-05 14:56
But Mr. Sadsak, We have nothing to change to!
Imagine Mr Abbott as the CEO of a Public Company who had been charged with the re structure of his company. He has been given three years to complete the task with adequate resources to complete the mission.
What progress do you think he has made?
Are the shareholders entitled to question his work ethic and those of his subordinates? He has to face a shareholders meeting in September.
Is the business plan in a reasonable condition taking into account the common good of all?
Will the costing’s stand up to the most rigorous inspection.
“Real Solutions for all Australians” plan, which looks reassuringly like a big book of policies, all chunky and nicely bound, but is actually a much less definitive collection of goals and priorities, with very little detail.
We have no alternative and cannot rust the CEO call
ed Abbott.
 
 
-1 #29 BishWarren 2013-08-05 18:39
The Opposition may not be there to oppose in the strict sense of the word, but the the current government has very little to agree with. The latest couple of issues, like the FBT decision demonstrate that Rudd has not changed as he did not even bother to consult the two industries that he impacted by it. Indeed, the chair of the Australian Industry Group said yesterday that Treasury did not even model the industry impact when they calculated the returns from it. Now we have a raid on the Budget Contingency, which is designed to support unforseen exigencies like natural disasters, for $200m to prop up the car industry as a result. No consultation with stakeholders and fixing up the mess afterward is not the way to deliver sound governance. The time for change has come. BTW, I do not like Tony Abbott either, but I do not have to drink with him, I just want him to govern properly.
 
 
+2 #30 RE: Newspoll and Morgan confirm our pollingJim 2013-08-06 11:12
How can we EXPECT Tony Abbott to govern properly? Tony Abbott is a very colourful character.
He is aggressive both physically and in the use of language. His negativity is legendary and he has little consideration for any ideas other than his own and says NO to his opponents policies regardless of their worthiness. He is by his own admission a liar of some regularity. He has little respect for the institution of parliament.
Rather than being an effective opposition leader, he is lacking in political judgement and that the ‘’best leader polls’’ seem to be a true reflection of his unpopularity. Australians are a positive lot and his constant negativity and putting us down really grates.
Abbott is beholden to the Ultra Right Wing of the Party who put him there to oust Malcolm Turnbull. His negativity, hesitation and stutters have begun. Mind you it must be hard if it’s so ingrained in you. How can he 'govern properly'?