'; ?> July 2016 | What The People Want
July 2016
Textor thesis fails empirical test
Tuesday, 26 July 2016 14:37 | Written by Graham Young

The 2016 federal election kills off Liberal Pollster Mark Textor’s theory of how the Liberal Party would win under Malcolm Turnbull.

Quoted in an article in The Australian he agreed that the ascent of the “centrist” Malcolm Turnbull would not result in a loss of conservative votes saying:

Exit poll federal election 2016
Tuesday, 26 July 2016 13:44 | Written by Graham Young

We've released two pieces of analysis on our exit poll.

The first is our standard analysis with the quantitative tables on the sample and the Leximancer maps. You can download that by clicking here.

It dovetails with our earlier research showing social issues and climate change being prime motivators for Labor and Greens voters, the economy and debt being prime motivators for Liberal and National supporters, and non-Greens minor party voters being concerned about the economy, but also cultural issues such as refugees, Islam, terrorism and gay marriage.

The second piece of analysis looks at the contribution that the issues of Medicare, superannuation and the economy made to the vote. This shows Medicare as being a small benefit to the Coalition, superannuation negative, but with a small subset of voters, and the economy positive for the Coalition.

These issues were more positive for the Coalition with non-Greens minor party voters, who held the key to the election.

You can download this second piece of research by clicking here.

However, as our analysis piece published in On Line Opinion today shows, Labor still got a good share of the minor party vote. The next term of parliament should be an arm wrestle over that vote, with whoever winning it forming the next government in 2015 of 2016.

You can read the analysis by clicking here.