'; ?> Rudd could win | What The People Want
Rudd could win

Our panel consists of people who are more interested in current affairs than the average voter. The results therefore tend to predict what less interested voters will decide to do when they absorb and analyse more of the facts.

Labor can win

The polling shows the Liberals dropping 6 percentage points, Labor up 3 percentage points and the Greens up 4. This puts them in a similar position to October 2010. If an election had been held then either side might have won, or it could have been a hung parliament.

Analysis of a weighted sample shows some interesting results.

Kevin Rudd not the messiah

 While Rudd appears to be wildly popular in scenes from shopping malls and public places around the country, this is not reflected in his approval scores where a majority (52%) disapprove of him and only 34% approves.

Rudd_Approve

ALP

Grn

LP

Total

Strongly approve

36%

7%

1%

16%

Approve

34%

20%

3%

18%

Disapprove

7%

26%

16%

13%

Neither approve nor disapprove

13%

29%

8%

12%

Strongly disapprove

8%

16%

72%

40%

Unsure

2%

3%

1%

1%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total approve

71%

27%

4%

34%

Total disapprove

21%

45%

79%

52%

Net approve

49%

-18%

-75%

-18%

This reflects a significant rump of unhappy Labor voters (21%), a plurality of Greens (45%) and the majority of Liberals (79%) who disapprove of him.

Abbott’s approval relatively strong

Tony Abbott’s net approval rating is a little stronger. While his disapproval is similar to Rudd’s at 50% he has a higher approval rating of 43%.

This reflects much stronger support from his own supporters (only 3% of Liberal voters disapprove), and the still very high first preference vote for the Liberal Party. ALP and Greens are almost unanimous in their disapproval – pointing to a divided nation.

Abbott_Approve

ALP

Grn

LP

Total

Strongly approve

1%

1%

45%

22%

Approve

1%

0%

43%

22%

Neither approve nor disapprove

3%

0%

8%

7%

Disapprove

12%

4%

2%

7%

Strongly disapprove

83%

95%

1%

43%

Unsure

0%

0%

1%

0%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total approve

2%

1%

88%

43%

Total disapprove

95%

99%

3%

50%

Net approve

-94%

-98%

85%

-6%

Preferred Prime Minister a dead heat

This makes the question of who is the preferred prime minister a dead heat.

Preferred_PM

Total

Kevin Rudd

48%

Tony Abbott

49%

Unsure

3%

Grand Total

100%

What are the issues driving the result

 Our polling is primarily qualitative, adding the “why” to the “what”. This is a better measure of what is happening than straight quantitative polling. We have analysed our responses using Leximancer, which is semantic software measuring the relationships between words and the probabilities of them being related.

When asked about why they are voting as they are respondents tend to mention “policies” first and “party” second. (See table at end) “Policies” is a word that favours Labor as many voters feel that they have policies, and they are unsure whether the Liberals do, particularly from the point of view of social policy. “Party” is a word that favours Liberal as most voters dislike the Labor Party. “Government” and “country” are words that also favour the Liberals as there is a sense that the country deserves better and an acknowledgement that this has been a bad government. It is also a view that the government is consumed with itself rather than electors.

It seems therefore that the resurgence of Labor under Rudd is a statement of faith in him despite a lack of faith in Labor. As a result the debate seems a little abstract. “Economy”, which was a dominant issue some months ago, has almost disappeared as a major driver. “Change”, in the sense of “time for a change” is much more prominent, although it also refers to “climate change” which is still an issue for Greens voters.

Policies and a record of incompetence against change and a record of competence

So the political decision that voters feel they have before them now is one where they can choose a government with policies that has not been competent, but which they hope will be more palatable and effective under Kevin Rudd, versus an opposition that has been effective in the past, but which is hazy on its plans for the future and may be harsh.

Labor voters

“…low inflation low interest rates low unemployment and low debt. They have the basics right plus they have better policies on education global warming and social justice”

“The idea of a Lib govt lead by Abbott would b a disaster for australia. He has no real empathy with the disadvantaged people in aus, no real social conscience and the Libs are abt.”

Coalition voters

“The Coalition are far better at managing the economy, securing our borders, handling education and health and delivering better IR policies than Labor regardles of who the Labor leader is.”

“They are the only party to lead this country out of the mess Labor has placed us in since Rudd's inception in 2007. We need a government that will protect this country by stopping the boats.”

“More experienced, better economic credentials, better than the union controlled ALP, but still needs to do much better. At least they are not stupid enough to tell transparent lies.”

Undecided voters

“The labor lot have made a major mess with everything they have touched and have inserted the Unions into places they should not be seen or heard.”

 “Labor lost its way and we do not have time for them to find it again, despite the change in leadership”

“I will not vote for Labor after the Kevin Rudd leadership, this will be only the second time in 37 years”

Concepts by ranking

 

 

 

Concept

Relevance

policies

26%

party

26%

vote

19%

government

18%

country

16%

better

11%

change

11%

leader

9%

labor

8%

best

8%

trust

8%

believe

8%

people

7%

economy

7%

leadership

6%

support

6%

values

6%

social

5%

policy

5%

parties

5%

time

5%

future

5%

lead

4%

political

4%

economic

4%

major

4%

real

3%

problems

3%

Concept Map

 

 Young 13 06 28

 

Share this article on your favourite social bookmarking sites:
Digg! Reddit! Del.icio.us! Google! Facebook! StumbleUpon! Twitter!
 

Comments   

 
+3 #1 RE: Rudd could winLorikeet 2013-07-03 21:31
In my view the results of the poll are clearly media driven. The television audience is much too willing to believe anything that is dished up, instead of using common sense and examining facts.

The temporary surge in support for the ALP is probably the result of Labor-voting men believing that Julia Gillard stabbed Kevin Rudd in the back. In actual fact, they changed leaders purely because they knew they could not win the 2010 election, so they installed a female leader to attract the votes of increasingly matriarchal women. They even got a bit of help from Malcolm Fraser who stated on national television that the Coalition was not ready to govern.

Then when the matriarchal glow wore off after Gillard lied about the Carbon Tax, they brought back Rudd, as part of the carefully orchestrated plan to blame Gillard for his original demise.
 
 
+2 #2 RE: Rudd could winLorikeet 2013-07-03 21:32
Even a photo shoot in a leading women's magazine, of Julia Gillard knitting a toy kangaroo for the royal baby could not garner sufficient support to save her.

I believe the popularity surge currently being experienced by Kevin Rudd will be fleeting, and that the Coalition will win the 2013 election with something less than the originally predicted landslide victory.
 
 
+1 #3 RE: Rudd could winMargaret 2013-07-04 00:37
Rudd's honeymoon will be very short in fact he should have called the election last week, already we all recall whey we did not like him before as he is still the same the little emperor. :zzz
 
 
-1 #4 RE: Rudd could winKen Higgs 2013-07-04 09:50
Rudd's only legitimate function is to CALL THE ELECTION NOW. Please! We are fed up with the shambolic rabble currently in government. Egypt has already got rid of two grossly unwanted leaders in less than three years... when do we get our chance to toss this pack of idiots out??? :eek:
 
 
0 #5 mrdavid lander 2013-07-29 07:46
WE NEED A GOVERNMENT THAT IS HONOURABLE AND HONEST NOT JUST POWER HUNGRY AND DRIVEN BY PARTISAN VALUES.WE HAVE TO CHOOSE THE LESSER OF THE EVILS.
 
 
-1 #6 RE: Rudd could winJohn Neeting 2013-07-30 02:59
If this voting populace votes Labor back in, I'm immigrating elsewhere. Although all pollis follow the UN agenda but at least we have a chance with Libs. Not a chance in hell with Krudd