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New South Wales exit poll quants

On their own the quantitative results from the exit poll don't tell us a lot, but comparing them to the first set of results tells us how effective the campaigns were.

As it turns out, not a lot changed, which was bad for Labor as they started behind. I looked at the results for the question on whether the state is heading in the right direction. This hadn't changed in any significant way. Then I looked at the vanity polls, and this did add something.

Baird Approval 2015

1 denotes the first poll and 2 the second. I haven't measured the total result as there is a strong left-leaning skew in our sample, which the election result bears out. However, history suggests that the vote within voting blocs is actually fairly accurate.

What this shows is that Baird was extremely popular. It was only amongst the Greens where more than 50% disapproved of his performance, and then only by 2-4 per cent. Labor voters became less hostile over the course of the election, but it still only reached 50 per cent, having originally been 41 per cent.

While it is a small sample, it would appear that Christian Democrats were not completely convinced about Baird at the start of the election, but this changed significantly so that 80 per cent approved of him by the end.

Foley's election was not nearly as happy.

Foley Approval 2015

He did win additional support from Greens, but still almost half were neutral on him. However he lost support amongst Christian Democrats, Liberals and Nats, mostly as a result of people moving from the neutral position to opposition.

Preferred Premier NSW 2015

The most interesting thing about preferred premier question is that Greens voters seem to have warmed to Baird during the course of the election, while around one-third of them were unsure who they would vote for as premier. Given a tendency of Greens voters to support the Labor Party, this is most likely because they are not sure about Foley.

Labor definitely lost the presidential campaign, and despite pushing a privatisation policy that was not popular, it did not cost Baird much political capital at all.


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