After 5 weeks they're back where they started

The chart below shows the zero-based movements in the party first preference votes. The Greens have actually suffered a slight decline over the course of the election, but the Labor and Liberal parties moved apart in the middle and have now come back together.

My interpretation of this is that the Government probably has around 52 to 53 percent of the two-party preferred vote, which makes it highly unlikely that swings in marginal seats will deliver up government to the opposition.


I have put the unadjusted tables below. There has been slight movement to Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, and both Abbott's and Gillard's net approvals have risen very modestly. Absent a really big event Labor should be easily returned. But just to make sure I'll have a look at marginals later in the week.


Looks like Abbott may have overcome some uncertainties during the period.


Julia has just struggled into positive numbers.


Tony hasn't made it yet, although they were both looking negative in the middle of the campaign.

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0 #1 Tony Abbott has certainly performed wellOrazio 2010-08-17 17:52
Tony Abbott has certainly performed well, I'm not certain that this is the result of good management or 'the real Tony'. He still does not demonstrate basic understanding of some issues, a good example is the alternative to the NBN he put forward, also his comment on personal involvement in turning the boats around ...
On the ABCs' QA session he performed very well. I agree that some of the programs instigated by the ALP in their stimulus were poorly conceived and the money could have been spent better elsewhere.
Julia Gillard does know the facts, and I think has the better team, but the disunity within the party will possibly cost her the election.

This has been a contest of Characters not issues, for me the issues are
The economy, the environment, immigration (these are intertwined). foreign policy, education and health.
Neither party has addressed these issues, in fact they have avoided or said vary little apart from saying we are better than them, they are worst than us….

Mark Latham on 60 minutes (normally I do not watch the program) made more sense than either protagonist and delivered a more balanced and critical view than most journalists.
0 #2 Wow this is just proof of how bad pollinGreg Perth 2010-08-17 19:40
Wow this is just proof of how bad polling can be, I still remember when Howard went to an election and all polls showed he would lose badly, he had a massive win. Abbott did very well on Q&A and appears so far to having a better week than Gillard, whose Election launch has been overshadowed with talk about a leaders debate and her using a script, contrary to her advisors saying it was adlib.
0 #3 Hi Greg, Polls are as good as they goGraham Young 2010-08-19 06:34
Hi Greg,

Polls are as good as they go, but you need to understand what they are measuring. They are measuring the results of a hypothetical election. Generally, when you get close to the real election they are a pretty good guide, but they are never absolutely correct. If they were we could forget about holding elections and just poll for who should run the country!