Labor starts campaign where it was last year

Is it possible Labor could have been in just as good a position now with Julia Gillard as leader? That's what our first preference index is saying. That doesn't feel right, but there is no point polling if you don't trust what your respondents tell you.

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This as a chart of our first preference index taking results on our polling up to August 8, 2013. Two things stand out on this chart. One is that the Liberal vote has kicked-up higher than it has been since December 2011. The other is the long slow decline of the Greens.

Early in the life of this parliament the fall in the Labor vote was compensated to some extent by a rise in the Greens vote. Now they are subsiding together, leaving room for the Liberal vote to climb.

Because our sample is not representative, our first preference index operates by zero-basing the parties at September 2010 and then measuring the change in the vote, rather than looking at absolute votes. As you can see, it's been a fairly accurate gauge.

I'll be posting the results of our research serially as I have time.

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