Victorian election results

The first thing that should be said is that the Victorian election result was a confirmation that neither of the two major parties is held in high regard. Last election the Liberals scored 38% of the vote, this election it was Labor on 38%.

There was actually more enthusiasm for the Liberal leader, Denis Napthine, than for the Labor leader, according to Newspoll, with Napthine being favoured by 41% to 37%. This is within the statistical margin of error, and 22% were unable to say who they preferred, making it a very weak preference for either.

 Better Premier NewsPoll 14 11 27

So what were the issues driving the change of vote? We had a small sample, so I'm not prepared to call them in an order of preference, but I think taken together they give a pretty good idea.

Most important issue

I've reproduced the Leximancer map below for most important issue.

Victoria Election Issue 14 12 04 

 

What this shows is:

  • The Liberals are out of the major debate. The central issues are delivery of services.
  • The issues most closely associated with the Liberals are to do with "government" and "poor". These reflect on the previous Brumby government, and the possibility of a union-affiliated Labor government winning.
  • The Liberals also get some benefit from the "East-West link", "values" and the idea that Labor would be "worse", arguments attractive to non-Greens minor party voters.
  • Non-Greens minor party voters are also interested in "vision" and "growth".
  • Labor voters are interested in services like "health" and "education" and perceived cuts under the Liberals.
  • Greens voters are mostly interested in "climate change".

Verbatims

I wanted restoration of the values that Labor exhibits, and implementation of those values, particularly fairness, opportunity, education, good health services and better public transport. (ALP voter)

Same, but the State also needs a government who can control spending and avoid waste. (Liberal voter)

I have a big issue with the cutting of health and education funding, especially alongside funding of religious zealots to provide religious "instruction" (Greens voter)

Lack of wisdom, vision and direction in leadership which embraces and engages all Victorians. Loss of conservative, Christian values from public life. (Non-Greens minor party voter)

Reason for first preference vote

 Victoria First Pref 14 12 04

The Liberals are back to bedrock with a common reason for voting for them being that it is how the respondent has always "voted". They are also rated well for the "economy", but usually they own that issue, and in this case they share it with Labor.

The key reasons for voting Labor are for "health", "public transport", "education" and the "environment".

The reasons for voting Greens are not the usual ones. Usually the Greens voter is concerned about climate change, the environment, and then all the service issues that Labor voters are concerned about. However, on this map the words associated with them are general, such as "electorate" or unusual such as "clear". Closer examination suggests that the Greens came across as having a clear idea of what they wanted to do, and a plan, which was communicated to voters better than the plans of the other parties.

The words around the non-Greens minor party voters indicate that they are lodging a protest. "Parties" is related to the need for balance between the major parties, or sending them a message.

Verbatims

I wanted restoration of the values that Labor exhibits, and implementation of those values, particularly fairness, opportunity, education, good health services and better public transport.(ALP voter)

They look after everybody not just the poor they stimulate the economy (Liberal voter)

The Greens oppose the East-West Link, support increased investment in public transport and further education, have a clear plan to address climate change, and are committed to the Great Forests National Park. (Greens voter)

I think we need more non Lib or Labour to have the balance of power. (Non-Greens minor party voter)

Preferred Premier

There is not a lot between the two candidates for premier, as Newspoll would suggest.

 Victoria Preferred Premier 14 12 04

 

Party branding is important, as the appearance of "Labor" close to Andrews, and "liberal" close to Napthine, suggest. However, Napthine supporters seem most concerned about his ability to work with "business", that he is "trusted" and "intelligent". Daniels is preferred for "promises" and "hope". But over all there is a sense that no matter which man was preferred they were the lesser of two evils. There was no enthusiasm.

Verbatims

While both men are intelligent and driven, only Daniel Andrews has a plan to govern for all Victorians, he is a person who has the ability to bring people together. Napthine is divisive as demonstrated by his government and his "leadership" over the period since his elevation from Minister to Premier. (Labor voter)

we need a leader to continue the forward prosperity of the state, not some inpet union puppet, dancing to the tune of the cfmeu (Liberal voter)

It's like asking if I prefer to stand in a big cow pat or a little cow pat. Andrews is better than Napthine but neither party deserves to hold government. (Greens voter)

Napthine at least has a business sense and has a better grip by far on the economy than the lunatic Andrews. (Non-Greens minor party voter)

 

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