Latest Morgan Poll shows statistically significant shift

Generally the month to month fluctuations in political polls are meaningless because they are within the margins of sampling error. Yesterday's release of the latest Morgan polling shows a 4% increase in the ALP's vote. This was on a sample of 1,033 and was greater than the potential margin of error. After distribution of preferences this would have given an election held on Saturday 4th February to the ALP 52.5% to 47.5%. Morgan credited the Australian Wheat Board scandal with the shift. He can't be sure of this as the questions don't mention the Wheat Board, although a poll to be published tomorrow by Morgan shows that most Australians don't think the federal government has acted ethically over the matter.

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0 #1 CommentD Ryan 2006-02-17 07:16
I have little regard for these polls as I think many people do. I have never met a person in all of my 60 years who has been interviewed by Morgan polls. None of us live in the middle of the Australian desert.

A poll of 1.033 people? a representative sample - rubbish!
0 #2 CommentHarry 2006-02-17 21:06
AWB will have an impact on those who follow complex political issues. Those people are connected to the internet and utilise political/curre nt affairs resources. But the "great unwashed" will vote at the next election and they're tuned to "The Biggest loser" not "OnLineOpinion" . A far more grassroots stuff-up by The Fed Govt will be required b4 they are ousted. That issue is Penalty Rates. Attack them John and your history.
0 #3 CommentNelson 2006-03-02 04:27
I don't particularly care about the AWB saga only to the say that I wish they'd just close it down.I believe that the inquiry was and still is a complete waste of time, if the so call main players had been siphoning of the money for themselves then I would have supported it. But seeing as they were doing it to retain a market share instead of losing it to the US who prop their industries up with subsidies.
Add that to the almost certain knowledge that any other company or government who dealt with Iraq at that time would also have been forced to employ the same tactics.
If the UN,toothless and useless as they may be, can overlook the matter then I believe we can too.Continuing along this line will only hurt the growers who stand to lose their livelihoods by thrusting their industry into a needless turmoil.
0 #4 CommentChokyi Nyingpo 2006-05-02 04:59
Attn: Harry
I was a Morgan Pollster (researcher) for nearly five years and can categorically state their sampling is both accurate and representative - many a weekend would find me doorknocking to try and find my last 51- 60 age bracket interviewee for example. Additionally, I have (subsequently) been a "subject", both physically and on the phone - and all my telephone interviews were of particularly significance in that we (the interviewer and I) had extended conversations on my views that could not have been discerned by the face-to-face nuance of the physical. I have no probs whatsoever with the Morgan organisation's methods of collection.

However, how the question's posed (and then asked) and which client is paying for the asking is an entirely different matter and completely and utterly affects any outcome of any Poll anywhere - anyone who thinks otherwise is living in cloud cuckooland!