"People power" falters

This poll may be more significant than the quantitative polls because it is of people who were motivated enough to complete a survey. We had 2,922 responses.

What was done

In response to Kevin Rudd’s call for Australians to exercise people power by ringing, writing or emailing their local members On Line Opinion launched a questionnaire which was promoted to regular participants and members of parliament, and also via Twitter.

To ensure useful feedback we asked people who they would back giving the options of Gillard, Rudd, neither, and unsure and why they would make this decision. In addition we asked for voting intentions as well as demographic questions.

Respondents can opt-in at their own initiative, so it is more like Mr Rudd’s “people power” proposal than the various quantitative polls that have been taken since.

While randomised polls tell you what respondents think, opt-in polls like this tell you much more about how respondents are motivated. The benefits of our poll over Mr Rudd’s proposal is that it is transparent so that not only members of parliament, but all Australians, can no what the result is. The benefits of our poll over randomised polls is it tells you what groups feel most strongly about the issue to the point that they are motivated into action.

The poll ran from 12:30 p.m. Friday 24 February until 12:00 midday Sunday 26 February, Eastern Standard Time. We had 2,922 responses

What was found

Despite photos of Mr Rudd in the Brisbane Mall with a flash mob of devotees “people power” is not a success for him, with one exception.

  1. 38% back Julia Gillard, 36% Kevin Rudd and 24% neither.

 

PM

Total

Julia Gillard

38%

Kevin Rudd

36%

Neither

24%

Unsure

3%

Grand Total

100%

 

  1. There is a strong gender effect with women, 47% being more likely than men 33% to back Julia Gillard. Conversely 29% of women and 39% of men back Kevin Rudd.

 

PM

Female

Male

Grand Total

Julia Gillard

47%

33%

38%

Kevin Rudd

29%

39%

35%

Neither

21%

26%

24%

Unsure

3%

2%

3%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

 

  1. The male bias in the Rudd vote also explains the fact that Rudd is most strongly backed by Liberal voters, while Gillard is backed by Labor and Greens voters.

 

PM

Greens

Labor

Liberal

Julia Gillard

52%

62%

12%

Kevin Rudd

33%

34%

31%

Neither

10%

2%

57%

Unsure

5%

2%

1%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

 

  1. …because men are more likely to vote Liberal at the moment.

 

First_Pref

Female

Male

Grand Total

Australian Democrats

0%

2%

1%

Bob Katter's Australian Party

2%

4%

3%

Christian Democrats

1%

1%

1%

Democratic Labor

0%

0%

0%

Family First

1%

1%

1%

Greens

31%

26%

28%

I haven't decided

7%

7%

7%

Independent

2%

3%

3%

Labor

30%

25%

27%

Liberal

22%

29%

26%

National

1%

1%

1%

One Nation

0%

0%

0%

Other

1%

1%

1%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

 

  1. Rudd’s strength is also in the most Liberal-voting state – his home state of Queensland. This is one of the few favourable things to come out of the poll. Labor needs to desperately retain and win seats in Queensland.

 

PM

NSW

Qld

SA

Vic

WA

Grand Total

Julia Gillard

41%

25%

49%

48%

41%

38%

Kevin Rudd

34%

42%

32%

30%

33%

35%

Neither

22%

31%

19%

19%

23%

24%

Unsure

3%

2%

1%

3%

4%

3%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 


  1. The other plus for Rudd is that he enjoys a huge lead over Gillard amongst the 7% of voters who are undecided.

PM

Total

Julia Gillard

23%

Kevin Rudd

56%

Neither

16%

Unsure

6%

Grand Total

100%

 

  1. This includes voters who are undecided this time but voted for other parties last time.

Count of PM

Last_Election

 

 

 

 

PM

Greens

Independent

Labor

Liberal

Grand Total

Julia Gillard

12%

15%

30%

22%

24%

Kevin Rudd

74%

62%

49%

52%

56%

Neither

9%

23%

15%

22%

16%

Unsure

6%

0%

5%

4%

5%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

  1. Voting for Rudd is also a sign of youth.

Count of PM

Age

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PM

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

Grand Total

Julia Gillard

26%

31%

36%

40%

39%

40%

38%

38%

Kevin Rudd

66%

55%

39%

37%

34%

27%

30%

35%

Neither

9%

10%

21%

21%

25%

32%

30%

24%

Unsure

0%

5%

4%

2%

3%

1%

3%

3%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

I have completed analysis of the qualitative data using Leximancer software.

  1. The discussion is all about Kevin Rudd, it is not about Julia Gillard. While she is the favoured candidate of the engaged he is the celebrity with 100% connectivity.
  2. Those favouring Kevin Rudd are focussed outward, believing he is the best chance to beat Tony Abbott and that he provides leadership and vision.
  3. Those favouring Julia Gillard are focused inward and are concerned about the management of government, having a cohesive team and the role of the media.
  4. Those favouring neither cite concerns about the country in general, that the argument is about power and that neither candidate can be trusted.

 

 

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Comments   

 
0 #21 As usual, Graham Young's analysis is betGreg Platt 2012-02-28 23:41
As usual, Graham Young's analysis is better than that in the media. Not greatly better, but meaningfully so nevertheless. It's because he's looking at the data & trying to work out what they are telling him.

On the other hand, Merv Nash (Comment #1) is right off the track. Julia Gillard is no communist. All the communists I know detest her and find her almost indistinguishab le from the Libs.
 
 
0 #22 " particularly resent is the notion thatCatching up 2012-03-19 08:58
" particularly resent is the notion that "more women voted for Gillard than Rudd". This sounds like women are more likely to vote for Gillard simply because she is female, ie out of sexism or feminism. "



The reverse could be said. It could be said that men cannot being themselves to vote for a woman, no matter her ability.




The findings so not surprise me in the least.

What does surprise me is the ongoing support for Mr. Abbott.



It would be interesting to do some research why the young are not attracted to the PM. I have some ideas but would like to know what other's think.

I an not surprise that Mr. Rudd appeals to some of them.
 
 
0 #23 The results do not surprise me. What alslavinia moore 2012-03-19 09:50
The results do not surprise me. What also fails to surprise me is that generally Australians seem to follow whatever viewpoint is being promoted in the pulp media. The partisanship of most Australian based media is pretty obvious.
What may not be quite so well known is the surruptitious digs at Gillard- her appearance for one- are possibly based in the negative perception of the good old boys when it comes to women in positions of power.
Maybe the stated preference for a third way is the only escape hatch some can envisage. It may be beneficial.
But who? Which of our potential leaders have the two qualities that are needed in a good leader: intelligence sufficient to discern what is truly in the interests of the majority of Australians and the courage to stand up against those small in number who have excessive power and whose only interests reside in their own over-full back pockets!
What i do not want for australia is to decend even further to the levels seen in the USA where money and appearance determine who becomes the next "leader". What I do not want in Australia is a hollywood/bolly wood style election production.
 
 
0 #24 Why no figures for Tasmania in the statePatsy J 2012-03-19 15:42
Why no figures for Tasmania in the state-based table?
 
 
0 #25 Hi Patsy, the reason for that is that thGraham Young 2012-03-19 16:47
Hi Patsy, the reason for that is that the number of people who come from Tasmania is so small that the error margin would make the summary meaningless. There is around 2.3% of the Australian population in Tasmania, which means that out of a sample of 1500 I will have about 35 Tasmanians. That gives it a sample error of plus or minus 16.57%. Just too large.
 
 
0 #26 Firstly,I have been Labor since long befAlan Brooks nickname aqua 2012-03-19 16:58
Firstly,I have been Labor since long before I was born-- about 100 years before. Hawke asked people to join a political party and he didn't care which 1; few took his advice, now we see result, weak support, politicans not as effective as they had been; no politican since Hawke has been able to manage adequately the 2 essentials--the party machine and the electors. Gillard is doing as well as can be expected--read what the press (sometimes) reports about other countries; we have a resources boom, but it has brought us a 3-speed economy, the poor are poverty-stricke n, richer ones on high wages are finding it difficult to make ends meet, CEOs given glittering rewards. Google Fort Mackay, Canada for interesting description what big business does. Gillard adequate, but not as charismatic as Rudd, who failed to embrace ability. Turnbull not far enough right for majority of LNP. But note that we are a country where the conservative party is called the Liberal Party. Why does it appear Greens "over-represent ed in survey" --is it because they are fanatics(activi sts)?
 
 
0 #27 My first post; I was not aware my real naqua. 2012-03-19 17:02
My first post; I was not aware my real name would appear, I wanted only nickname.
 
 
0 #28 Been away overseas, so wasnt able to parFredess 2012-03-20 07:50
Been away overseas, so wasnt able to participate. I have voted Labor all my voting life and will not cast a vote for Gillard and I am female. I refuse to reward a backstabbing liar with my vote and I am totally against the guilt tax wrapped up as carbon tax. Had Kevin Rudd regained the leadership I would have given him a listen with a view to my vote, but offering me Gillard they have no chance what-so-ever of getting it. Anyone can see Gillard is out of her depth in the role of PM.
 
 
0 #29 The Greens notify all of their mates wheLorikeet 2012-03-20 16:25
The Greens notify all of their mates whenever there is a poll to fill out. They bombard us with their recidivist views at every opportunity, to give us the false impression that we have an interest in being taxed to the eyeballs by communists (them).

And yes, lots of Greens are well educated and rich. They intend to unload massive taxes on ordinary Australians and pollution on the third world.

While they sit in their quiet pristine semi-rural areas, refusing to have their own train station, high school or supermarket, they unload traffic congestion and pollution on the urban working class, and turn our schools into overcrowded ghettoes.