Liberal Party was in desperate straits before the latest polling that puts One Nation on up to 29%

Sunday, 01 March 2026 20:21 | Written by Graham Young

After Labor’s 2025 election win Labor Party President Wayne Swan said that Labor’s win was “wide but shallow”. Our latest poll backs him up with most voters believing Labor does not deserve to be in office while at the same time still saying they would vote for a Labor government at an election.

I’ve learned a lot from watching Wayne Swan over the years when he has run Labor campaigns. He’s someone who knows how to make his own luck, but he’s also been the beneficiary of luck. This Labor government also appears to be lucky.

Our poll was taken while Sussan Ley was leader. That was their first piece of luck. Her approval across the board was only 7% with 65% disapproving.

Most tellingly her net approval with Coalition voters was -52%, worse than it was with Labor voters at -37%, although there was undoubtedly a factor for Labor supporters of not wanting to interrupt their enemy while they were making a mistake. Only 1% of One Nation voters approved of her, compared to 86% who disapproved.

The second piece of luck comes in the shape of the former Fish and Chip shop proprietor from Ipswich, Pauline Hanson. At the time our poll was taken One Nation was the second largest political party by vote in the country, and as far as I can tell, still is.

This splits the vote on the right. 42% of voters said they usually vote Coalition and only 4% usually vote One Nation. So with the Coalition on 21% and One Nation on 22% and Labor steady there has been a major transfer of votes from mostly the Coalition to One Nation.

Worse for the Coalition not only does Hanson get a higher net approval rating overall than Ley at -22%, but 59% of Coalition voters approve of her (versus 11% for Ley) and only 19% disapprove (versus 63% for Ley). Coalition voters also think One Nation deserves to be in government before their own party. Only 16% of Coalition voters agree their side deserves to be in government versus 60% who disagree. 22% of Coalition voters agree One Nation deserves to be in government versus 54% who disagree.

Overall, Labor wins the contest of who deserves to win an election with a net of -7% agreeing they do. One Nation is on -44% and the Liberals on -80%.

Of course we don’t know how the change of Liberal leadership will be read by the electorate, but it is easy to see why the party room moved on Ms Ley.

The longevity of the Menzies' Coalition government is often attributed to the ALP split of the 50s. Similar forces are at play now, but this time they favour Labor.

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