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Queensland quants
Sunday, 15 January 2012 21:00 | Written by Graham Young

These are raw unadjusted figures from our virtual focus group and probably overstate the LNP vote and understate Labor. They may also understate Bob Katter's vote as there are fewer respondents from the areas where he appears to be doing well compared to the south-east metropolitan areas where he is doing less well.

Report_Image_12_01_17There is also a collapse in the Labor two-party preferred vote. This is a longitudinal study, so while the absolute percentages almost certainly skew towards the LNP, the movements are predictive. According to David Fraser's analysis, the Labor Party scored 50.6% of the two-party preferred vote last election, so a nine percent swing against would put them on 41.6%. Our methodology asks voters whether and how they will allocate their preference, which is better than that used by most other pollstsers. Where around one-third of the first preference vote will go to minor parties exhaustion factors can be crucial in determining results.

2PP_November_2011

Anna Bligh has experienced a substantial decline in approval in the eight months since our last Queensland poll.

Bligh_Approval_November_2011

Campbell Newman has also suffered a decline - much more precipitate than Anna Bligh's although his result is still better than hers.

Newman_Approval_November_2011

However Newman still maintains a healthy lead over Bligh as preferred Premier which is statistically identical to the last time we polled.

Preferred_Premier_November_2011

 

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Comments   

 
0 #1 Television journalists keep telling us A — Lorikeet 2012-01-18 17:31
Television journalists keep telling us Anna Bligh will call an election as soon as the kids go back to school. I don't think this is correct. She is so widely hated that I think she will wait until after the council elections, in the faint hope that most of the electorate's wrath will be visited on them.

Councils have no Constitutional Power and most of the decisions we don't like are due to financial impacts created by state and federal governments without any compensation.

Campbell Newman is pushing hard for a state election to be held before council elections. He clearly knows he will pick up more seats at the state level if the electorate has not already unloaded its bile on councils. The chance of the LNP losing control of the Brisbane City Council seems negligible.

Both Labor and LNP are trying to minimise the impact of both Katter's Australian Party and the Democratic Labor Party, because Bob Katter MP (Independent QLD) and Senator John Madigan (DLP Victoria) have come out strongly in support of Australian farmers and manufacturers, and do not support a Carbon Tax, along with a lengthening dole queue.
 
 
0 #2 I cannot imagine why the Queensland vote — Rod Foster 2012-01-19 09:38
I cannot imagine why the Queensland voter would return a Labor Government with Bligh at its head. The Labor mob has been so bad that it should be turfed out for a long while. At least NSW people have the sense to throw out incompetent governments.