December polling - voting quants

With Rudd replaced by Shorten, a virtual unknown, the net approval of the Labor leader has skyrocketed. 

Kevin Rudd's net approval was -44%, while for Bill Shorten it is -2%

 Rudd Approval_Shorten_Approval - Copy

In the same time Tony Abbott has gone from having a +2% approval rating to one of -12%.

Abbott Approval_13_12 - Copy

Things to note are:

  1. Shorten has only a 34% positive approval rating. 
  2. One-quarter of respondents are neutral on Shorten. They will likely move into "approve" or "disapprove" before the next election, which could move his approval ratings strongly either way.
  3. Only two-thirds of Labor voters approve of Shorten. 
  4. Support amongst Greens is 46%, less than 50%
  5. He is on a net negative of -19% with non-Green minor party voters.
  6. Liberal voters are much less negative against Shorten than they were against Rudd.
  7. Abbott's approval rating has declined amongst ALP voters from -82% to -98%.
  8. His approval rating has declined amongst non-Green minor party voters from +22% to -2%

Despite the slight edge over Abbott that Shorten has in approvals, they virtually tie in terms of preferred Prime Minister.

Preferred PM_13_12 - Copy

That means that while Shorten is losing a lot of the neutrals. When we look at that, 40% of those who are neutral on Bill Shorten favour Abbott as PM, while 49% favour Shorten.

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