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Queensland election 2015: the quants

Campbell Newman has his back against the wall with Labor currently close enough to take government on a uniform swing. This analysis is based on 603 responses from our qualitative panel.

The panel has been adjusted to represent first preference voting intentions taken from the most recent Newspoll

Newspoll shows the LNP on 42%, ALP 37%, Greens 7%, Others 14%. Our sample has been weighted to account for that as it is opt-in and therefore not necessarily representative of the population at large.

The following tables tell the story.

The most signficant issue in terms of this election is who most deserves to be the government, and whether the opposition is ready or not.

Asked whether the Opposition has done enough to deserve to be the Government, 54% think they haven't done enough, while only 27% think they have. On the same question the government's figures are 52% and 43% - signficantly better.

Asked whether the Opposition needed at least another term in government 50% agree and 36% disagree.

 Final Preference Minor Qld Election 2015

 

Right Direction Qld Election 2015

Newman Approve Qld Election 2015

Newman Re-elect Qld Election 2015

Palaszczuk Approve Qld Election 2015

Palaszczuk Re-elect Qld Election 2015

Preffered Premier Qld Election 2015

Strong Team Qld Election 2015

Fairer Qld Election 2015

No Plan Qld Election 2015

Listening Qld Election 2015

One More Term Qld Election 2015

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Comments   

 
0 #1 Will Just Vote 1 fail?Philip Machanick 2015-01-29 09:11
Last election, about 80% of Labor supporters and 50% of Greens only voted 1. If these figures are at all accurate it spells trouble for LNP because in the past about 80% of Greens #1 voters put LNP at 2. Split of other small parties is closer to 50-50 between ALP and LNP, which is why the LNP now strongly favours Just Vote 1.

Back in the day when the Libs and Nats were at each others' throats Just Vote 1 worked well for Labor.

Whichever way you look at it, perverting the electoral system to your own ends is sleezy. Or: what goes around comes around.
 
 
0 #2 RE: Queensland election 2015: the quantsLorikeet 2015-01-30 10:38
I think most voters will number all of the boxes, putting the LNP last. I find it hard to believe that 80% of Greens supporters would put the LNP at 2, Phil, although there are some very well heeled Greens in inner city areas.
 
 
0 #3 where Greens votes goPhilip Machanick 2015-01-30 15:29
Lorikeet, you may be right that Greens do not put ALP at #2 at such a high rate. The stats I found were based on final preferences. Probably more accurately, in recent elections, about 80% of Greens put ALP ahead of LNP. Figures here suggest the figure is actually 90%.

A fair number of Greens supporters are ex-Libs and the LNP could get their enviro policies a bit closer to the modern developed-count ry mainstream and win those back at least as a #2 choice. But it seems they would rather live in the Murdoch echo chamber of all enviro policies are evil.
 
 
0 #4 Figures were very accurateGraham Young 2015-03-21 05:51
Hi Philip, the figures were very accurate, and I think I called it pretty well right from the beginning. People who complete these surveys are more motivated than usual, so I never expected the Greens to go 90% ALP, but they went pretty close. The optional preferential system certainly worked for the ALP this time.
 
 
0 #5 RE: Queensland election 2015: the quantsLorikeet 2015-03-21 06:12
Yes, the LNP definitely learned the folly of just going for VOTE ONE. :lol: