Queensland luke warm on G20 Summit

I thought that Julia Gillard awarding to the G20 Summit to Brisbane was actually a bit of a coup, but it seems that while I'm not on my own, there's almost as many disagree with me as agree, and neither group makes it to 50%.

How strongly do you approve or disapprove of Brisbane having the G20? (by final preference).

 

G20_Approve ALP LNP Undecided Grand Total
Strongly_approve 33% 15% 13% 20%
Approve 19% 17% 23% 19%
Neutral 25% 25% 23% 24%
Disapprove 9% 19% 23% 16%
Strongly_disapprove 13% 22% 18% 19%
Unsure 1% 2% 3% 2%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Total approve 52% 32% 35% 39%
Total disapprove 22% 41% 40% 35%
Net approve 31% -9% -5% 4%

There is obviously a strong partisan disposition, although a third of those voting LNP federally support the decision, even though 41% disapprove of it.

On balance from the total sample 39% approve and 35% disapprove. I predict lots of people will take holidays when the conference is on.

If Julia Gillard was seeking to make political capital in making this decision she has failed.

How likely or unlikely are you to vote Labor as a result of this decision? (by final preference).

 

Change_Vote LNP ALP Undecided Grand Total
Much_more_likely 0% 7% 3% 3%
More likely 0% 10% 0% 3%
Neutral 52% 77% 70% 63%
Less_likely 14% 5% 10% 10%
Much_Less_likely 35% 1% 15% 21%
Unsure 0% 0% 3% 0%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
More likely 0% 17% 3% 6%
Less_likely 48% 5% 25% 31%
Net more likely -48% 12% -23% -25%

The really telling column is the undecideds who are less likely to vote Labor as a result by a factor of 8 to 1. The LNP and ALP columns tell you that Liberals see it as another strong reason not to like Gillard, while ALP voters don't see it as a major plus.

Campbell Newman said he didn't want to spend any money on the conference. There's significant support for that position, although most of us would pay something, but only just. Again, the party split is evident with 39% of ALP voters prepared to pay $92.5 (one-quarter of the cost) or more for hosting the conference.

The budget for holding the G20 in Brisbane is $370 million. How much do you believe the Queensland government should contribute towards the cost? (by final preference).

 

 

Budget LNP ALP Und Total
Nothing 60% 25% 45% 47%
$10M 15% 6% 13% 12%
$23.125 M 4% 4% 5% 4%
$46.25 M 6% 5% 10% 7%
$92.5 M 2% 13% 10% 7%
$185 M 2% 26% 3% 11%
Unsure 9% 20% 15% 13%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

There were 334 responses, which was very good considering the poll was only open for 7 hours, and the sample looked to be faily representative. Which is bad news for Labor, because it had the two-party preferred federal vote in Queensland 59% LNP to 41% ALP.

 

First_Pref Total
LNP 49%
ALP 18%
Grn 15%
Undecided 7%
BKAP 5%
Independent 2%
FF 2%
CDP 1%
Other 1%
AD 0%
QP 0%
Grand Total 100%

We have a slightly left-leaning sample as the Greens vote is overstated and the ALP one understated, however the LNP primary vote is only 2% higher than it was in the March Newspoll so I'm betting our overall figures are pretty well right and that the two-party preferred vote below is close to the mark. A figure like this would be devastating for Labor. It would be another 4% against them since last election and leave them holding just 4 seats if it was uniform.

 

Final_Pref Total
LNP 59%
ALP 41%
Grand Total 100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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