Exit poll federal election 2016

We've released two pieces of analysis on our exit poll.

The first is our standard analysis with the quantitative tables on the sample and the Leximancer maps. You can download that by clicking here.

It dovetails with our earlier research showing social issues and climate change being prime motivators for Labor and Greens voters, the economy and debt being prime motivators for Liberal and National supporters, and non-Greens minor party voters being concerned about the economy, but also cultural issues such as refugees, Islam, terrorism and gay marriage.

The second piece of analysis looks at the contribution that the issues of Medicare, superannuation and the economy made to the vote. This shows Medicare as being a small benefit to the Coalition, superannuation negative, but with a small subset of voters, and the economy positive for the Coalition.

These issues were more positive for the Coalition with non-Greens minor party voters, who held the key to the election.

You can download this second piece of research by clicking here.

However, as our analysis piece published in On Line Opinion today shows, Labor still got a good share of the minor party vote. The next term of parliament should be an arm wrestle over that vote, with whoever winning it forming the next government in 2015 of 2016.

You can read the analysis by clicking here.

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-3 #1 --------------- --------------- ------------Don 2016-07-27 08:43
All the issues above will be solved when we, stop playing "the ant and the rubber tree plant" (old song from the 1950s) and return to our Christian heritage, the Traditional Roman Catholic Church, the foundation of the western culture
+1 #2 our?bill parker 2016-07-27 09:53
Born into an agnostic Church of England family I think we can drop that "our" Christian heritage tag.

Really does not have anything to do with me at all. Go back beyond the 1950s!
0 #3 Sheila HaleSheila Maureen Hale 2016-07-27 11:37
This country has never been a Christian country in the true sense of the word. There are very few born again Christians in this country and the Roman Catholic Church is a pseudo Christian cult that preaches a false gospel of salvation by works. Salvation is by grace through faith alone. Ephesians 2:verses 8-9. Attending Church like the C of E etcetera does not mean a person is a Christians. Christians are those who have been born again John 3.3 which says truly truly, I say to you, unless one is born again, he cannot see the Kingdom of God.
+6 #4 RE: Exit poll federal election 2016Dr Bob Rich 2016-07-27 14:17
I find it ludicrous that Turnbull and Co are talking about Mandate after such a severe loss.
+3 #5 RE: Exit poll federal election 2016David Truman 2016-07-27 15:03
Those of us who voted for minor parties over cultural issues including Turnbull's pathetic stance on Islam and his general social progressivism didn't want the ALP to win, but we sure as hell wanted to send the government a message that it can't ignore the conservative base. I for one am absolutely delighted that Pauline Hanson looks like getting 3 or more Senators. Those issues need to be talked about, not airbrushed aside with puffs of waffle about the exciting new economy.
-1 #6 RE: Exit poll federal election 2016Kathryn 2016-07-27 16:06
Interesting to note the devious, ongoing corruption and suppression of information constantly perpetrated by the LNP/Murdoch/IPA Alliance. Latest thing is that the ABC (which taxpayer owned Station has been corrupted with the Board being shockingly compromised and stacked by biased LNP minions and is now headed by the Sky News Murdoch sycophant, Michelle Guthrie) had access to the Four Corners program about the callously inhumane abuse of boys in the Don Dale Detentiion Centre LONG BEFORE THE LAST ELECTION. However, Guthrie (being the unconscionable and amoral LNP minion) REFUSED to release the video until AFTER THE ELECTION because he (and the Lying Nazi Party) knew that their callous disregard for the welfare, mental and physical health and safety of vulnerable indigenous children by their delegated thugs would seriously impact the LNP/Murdoch/IPA Alliance at the last election! The LNP are the worst most fascist government in living memory and fools voted them back! Shame on you!
-2 #7 RE: Exit poll federal election 2016David Truman 2016-07-27 16:12
My goodness, Kathryn. What's in the water you've been drinking? Talk about cognitive dissonance!
+1 #8 RE: Exit poll federal election 2016Kathryn 2016-07-27 17:07
Truman, like most Libtards, you really do need to get yourself educated, learn what is ACTUALLY going on and not what you want to believe is going on! Truman, you and the rest of the ill-informed fools that voted for the LNP are a disgrace - you have given credence to a pack of fascists hell bent on the destruction of free speech, democracy and our once egalitarian way of life.
0 #9 RE: Exit poll federal election 2016Jeff 2016-07-28 11:30
This was a hard election to decide who to vote for.

Turnbull showed no leadership after becoming PM.

Labor showed some economic leadership, but after their meltdown prob not quite ready to be in Govt again.

The greens need to frame a better economic narrative, but there's hope under Di Natale that they could become a reasonable 3rd force in politics.

Politics in Australia is in a very sad state. Too much time spent on point scoring and not enough on being truthful with the public that we're going to have to start earning our way in the world again.

We will experience declining standards of living until we regain our global competitiveness , that the ageing of the population and declining workers to dependants ratio means we need a radical restructuring of the tax system to keep it sustainable.