Newspoll and Galaxy agree - LNP ahead

The Australian reports today on Newspoll research which puts the Liberal National Party in a small lead over the ALP. It's not up on Newspoll's site yet, but it confirms Galaxy and our own findings.

Most notable movement in the figures appears to be the deterioration in Premier Anna Bligh's satisfaction rating plunging from 52% to 47%. Springborg satisfaction is 44%, almost the same figure as Bligh, although his disapproval rating has been rising, and a larger number of people are undecided about him than Bligh.

We uncovered strong dissatisfaction with Bligh in June last year. What we detected 9 months ago appears to have leaked into the general population. This suggests that the LNP lead is likely to increase.

While our respondents haven't moved much, the general populace has. My suspicion is that this is because our sample regularly thinks more deeply about politics than the average, but that when the average turns its mind to the same issues as an election approaches, it thinks similarly.

We are a week and a half out from the election and it is about now that most voters seriously start thinking about how they will vote. That means, assuming my theory is true, that the quantitative polls should start to capture more defections at the same time that the undecided vote collapses and tends to favour the LNP which should push the LNP vote relatively higher.

All of this assumes that nothing happens from outside the system between now and election day to radically alter perceptions. Cyclone Hamish making a landfall is just one of those potential factors; or one or other of the leaders making a major gaffe.

(Re-reading my earlier research, the only thing which doesn't appear accurate is my prediction that there would be no early election. Perhaps an example of a rogue population rather than rogue sampling, as I was essentially predicting the behaviour of a single person - the Premier.)

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