Surge to LNP on calling of election.

Wednesday, 04 March 2009 02:49 | Written by Graham Young

In the first week of the election there has been a strong swing in sentiment against the government, somewhere in the vicinity of 7.5%. If this were reflected in the election result Queensland would most likely have a new government and a hung parliament.

Voters see this election as being about the government, not the opposition, and they appear to be punishing it for its governing of the state.

Our surveys are of people who are most likely to lead debate. They are people who write on blogs, ring talkback radio, write letters to the editor and talk politics to friends, relatives and neighbours.

While they may not be a randomised sample of the total population they provide a good lead as to where public opinion is heading.

In June last year they told us that the government was in trouble. On a two-party preferred basis they favoured the then Coalition by 52% to 48%. Since then there has been a 7% improvement in the coalition vote on virtually the same group of people.

(Note: most pollsters allocate preferences as they were allocated at the last election, we ask voters how they would allocate. These figures catch all those proposing to just vote one and not allocate a preference.)

This improvement in the two-party preferred vote is mirrored in the first preference vote, with the Liberal National Party (I have added the Liberal and National Party votes together before the merged entity came into being) first preference vote up 7% since June last year.

While Labor was down in January the lost voters were initially warehoused mostly with Greens and Independents. It was only after the election that they moved across to the LNP.

What has caused this movement?

It doesn't appear to be anything to do with Lawrence Springborg. His approval rating with this group has actually been declining at the same time his own party's vote is increasing.

Although not as quickly as Anna Bligh's approval rating.

Despite what they will personally do with their votes, our respondents are telling us that they still expect Labor to win.

Although they'd like the Coalition to win, but not by as much as their voting intentions suggest. A significant minority would like to see a hung parliament.

If Springborg hasn't caused this shift in sentiment, what has?

It's possible that calling an election is a large part of the problem as the table below showing the numbers more ore less likely to vote for the government as a result of calling the election early suggests.

But note how the net figure hasn't changed much, even though those on both sides of the proposition have.

Which suggests that the major reason is general dissatisfaction with the way the state is heading.

All of which means that the elction is currently framed for our voters as a vote of confidence or no-confidence in the government, rather than a vote for the government or the opposition. If it stays that way, and on the assumption that our respondents are ahead of the curve, there is a very good chance that the opposition will win.

I'll be posting results of the qual in the next couple of days.

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Comments

0 #1 Comment — Earth 2009-03-04 20:31

There is a major problem with the Opposition and that is that they are lazy, apathetic and astoundingly arrogant in Opposition. Trying to get a simple response from Springborg's team is amazingly hard and when you push the matter, they just ignore you in return. What a way to campaign for government.

Another issue is that the Opposition don't criticise many of the problems of QLD Labor with policy. Probably because under Springborg, they two have become mirrored in unpoplar in policy such as the housing of child sex offenders nearby schools and playgrounds.

The Courier Mail has been telling the Opposition what to campaign on for how many months now and they still can't pick it up?

I have no confidence with either side.

0 #2 Comment — Robert Blaikie 2009-03-10 23:54

I find it difficult to support either party.

I think that the ALP has been there for too long and is incompetent.

On the other hand the so-called LNP would be an embarrassment to Qld were they to gain power. Imagine Springborg as Premier!! No thanks.

0 #3 Comment — Edi Solari 2009-03-11 00:20

I cannot see how any clear thinking Queenslander can possible vote for Bligh and her labour party she is still making promises that Beatie made before the last election and the one before that and delivered nothing (sounds something like "i will go the full term")trust is all gone she thinks voters are fools, you can also see that she is carrying around her neck too much 'Greens'
baggage and has a treasurer that does'nt know anything about the state economy.

0 #4 Comment — Despair & Agony 2009-03-11 00:40

Now, why in the middle of a downturn would Bligh(t) try to handout $60m for yet another bloody football stadium?

Really! I arkst youse.... where was that $60m when the local schools were looking for a couple of thousand for a new fridge, or for a minibus, or the janitors new ute?

Why do we have to keep falling back on these crass bribes at election time?

What would happen if we all voted for the candidates who thought they were on a suicide mission?

Would that be any worse? Would the brainpower in parliament diminish at all?

(Not Pauline though- she doesn't really want to get in, just pick up the funding).

No fellow electors... put aside your habits of a lifetime, avoid the LNP and ALP, vote for the nuttiest independent on your list and exhaust the vote there... or Green of course, just to see how they'd manage to handle the excessive damage wrought by our global system of capital.

Let's have a voter led revolution.... unseat the timeservers... trash their expectations... . dismantle the system... vote for the unexpected.

0 #5 Comment — Paul Holland 2009-03-11 01:25

The only way a public can protest against an incompetent goverment and a weak opposition is to vote for a minority party or independent. The only way to strengthen government is to make them work. Hung parliaments do this.

0 #6 Comment — Harry 2009-03-12 03:51

We have nothing to lose by voting for Springborg. Labor has had 11 years to fix up our Health system. What about Patel and the cost to send him to America first class? and then to bring him back? Have you all forgotten?

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