Our sample of 252 is skewed towards older people and males.
It also had a high proportion of Greens voters

Yet the two-party preferred vote was very close.

Given the political bias in the sample this suggests a very close result. Part of the key to what is happening is that Premier Mike Rann is not well regarded.

This is true of Greens as well as Liberal voters.
Isobel Redmond has a correspondingly benign reputation.

On balance Greens approved of her while Labor voters were also relatively approving. Her one problem is that her "Neither approve nor disapprove" rating is extremely high, particularly amongst Greens and Labor voters. This is generally a sign that the subject of the polling has not made an impact on these people. It gives the Labor party an opportunity to fill-in the details of who she is in the way that advantages them the most.
Despite these relatively good figures for the Liberals, most expect Labor to win or for their to be a hung parliament.

This includes Liberal voters.

There is no great desire for the Liberals to win, but interestingly, Greens voters, who might hold the election in their gift through the distribution of their preferences, favour a hung parliament. The only way they can organise that is by voting Liberal.
So this election may come down to the relationship between the Libs and the Greens. |
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Steven
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