South Australia 2010 - the quants

Our sample of 252 is skewed towards older people and males.

 Respondents by age and gender South Australian poll 2010 

It also had a high proportion of Greens voters

Voting intentions South Austrlia 2010

Yet the two-party preferred vote was very close.

2PP vote South Australia 2010

Given the political bias in the sample this suggests a very close result. Part of the key to what is happening is that Premier Mike Rann is not well regarded.

Mike Rann approval rating South Australia 2010

This is true of Greens as well as Liberal voters.

Isobel Redmond has a correspondingly benign reputation.

Isobel Redmong approval rating SA 2010

On balance Greens approved of her while Labor voters were also relatively approving. Her one problem is that her "Neither approve nor disapprove" rating is extremely high, particularly amongst Greens and Labor voters. This is generally a sign that the subject of the polling has not made an impact on these people. It gives the Labor party an opportunity to fill-in the details of who she is in the way that advantages them the most.

Despite these relatively good figures for the Liberals, most expect Labor to win or for their to be a hung parliament.

Who is likely to win the SA 2010 election?

This includes Liberal voters.

Who do you want to win the SA election 2010

There is no great desire for the Liberals to win, but interestingly, Greens voters, who might hold the election in their gift through the distribution of their preferences, favour a hung parliament. The only way they can organise that is by voting Liberal.

So this election may come down to the relationship between the Libs and the Greens.

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Comments   

 
0 #1 Lucky for South Australia. The already bSteven 2012-01-29 04:09
Lucky for South Australia. The already booming economy gets to mushroom a lot more with the projected number of investors coming in. The crux of the matter now is how the people in power get to wisely and equally distribute this out to its constituents without having to raise much confusion and worse chaos later on.

Steven
My Blog: gants hiver