Queensland quants: Newman heads Bligh

It might be the announcement effect, but our polling, conducted over Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, shows Campbell Newman well-positioned to beat Anna Bligh if an election were held now.

The following table shows Newman winning easily.

First_Pref Total
Christian Democrats 1%
Democrats 0%
Family First 2%
Greens 18%
Independent 4%
Labor 24%
Liberal National 49%
One Nation 0%
Other 2%
Grand Total 100%

n=564

This represents a change of 8% in the LNP vote and -9% in the ALP vote since the last election. Campbell Newman has to win the seat of Ashgrove to enter state parliament, and this requires a 7% swing, so on these figures, absent any personal vote, he looks to be a real chance.

As with all of our surveys, the sample leans to the left compared to the general population, but in the case of this sample that is reflected more in the Greens vote than the other votes.

On a two-party preferred basis our group would vote LNP by 60% to 40%. These are similar figures to what we showed in the last council election when Campbell Newman as Lord Mayor easily won the mayoral vote in the Ashgrove area. It probably won't hurt him as an ex-Army engineer that the Enogerra Army barracks are part of the electorate.

Our polling shows Bligh having a net negative approval as Premier.

Bligh_Approval Total
Strongly approve 12%
Approve 21%
Neither approve nor disapprove 11%
Disapprove 22%
Strongly disapprove 34%
Grand Total 100%
Total approve 33%
Total disapprove 56%
Net approve -23%

n=607

Newman has a strong net positive rating.

Newman_Approval Total
Strongly approve 36%
Approve 22%
Neither approve nor disapprove 15%
Disapprove 11%
Strongly disapprove 14%
No opinion 2%
Grand Total ####
Total approve 58%
Total disapprove 25%
Net approve 33%

n=608

There are similar numbers of neutral voters in each result, but the Newman's approves are more likely to be "Strongly approve" than Bligh's with the reverse the case on the disapproves.

Newman is easily ahead of Bligh on the question of who would be the preferred premier.

Preferred_Premier Total
Anna Bligh 34%
Campbell Newman 57%
Unsure 8%
Grand Total 100%

n=580

Voters sense his good position. Of those who felt they could answer the question, 52% expect the LNP to win.

Expectation Total
Labor 32%
Liberal National 52%
Neither (Hung Parliament) 16%
Grand Total 100%

n=503

And 56% would like them to win.

Desire Total
Labor 32%
Liberal National 56%
Neither (Hung Parliament) 12%
Grand Total 100%

n=577

Anna Bligh said:

I am not in a position to rule anything in or anything out and I think Queenslanders will understand that,

We have a job to do this year - it is to rebuild our state. It is impossible, frankly, to imagine how we are going to do that with a capital city now being abandoned by the mayor and being left leaderless.

She's wrong. Queenslanders don't understand.

Bligh_Prop_1 Total
Strongly agree 13%
Agree 13%
Neither agree nor disagree 15%
Disagree 18%
Strongly disagree 41%
Unsure 1%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 25%
Total disagree 59%
Net agree -33%

n=599

She also said about Campbell Newman:

(He) has decided to cut and run when people needed him most.

What I say to the people of Queensland is I will never cut and run when you need me.

Campbell Newman has decided today to abandon the city of Brisbane, a city that's been devastated by its worst natural disaster.

This is not someone with the character, in my view, required for the job of leadership.

What we've seen today is the lord mayor of our capital city abandon it.

Respondents are only marginally less likely to disagree with this.

Bligh_Prop_2 Total
Strongly agree 18%
Agree 13%
Neither agree nor disagree 9%
Disagree 13%
Strongly disagree 46%
Unsure 0%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 32%
Total disagree 59%
Net agree -27%
n=599

By contrast when Campbell Newman says:

We need to deal with a very bad Labor state government that has given us all sorts of problems across Queensland and I'm saying today that I'm prepared to do the hard yards, prepared to do this difficult and probably complex way, but I do it because I want to help the people of Queensland take this state forward.

Newman_Prop_1 Total
Strongly agree 39%
Agree 15%
Neither agree nor disagree 10%
Disagree 16%
Strongly disagree 19%
Unsure 1%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 55%
Total disagree 35%
Net agree 20%
n=598

He gets a head nod...just.

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