Australians look for third alternative

Some of the responses to our "People Power" survey seemed to think that the Gillard government lacked legitimacy and that one of the reasons for this was the way in which Kevin Rudd was removed as Prime Minister, so we decided to resurvey respondents and see just what views respondents had of the contest and where they saw Labor party leadership heading. On most issues there isn't a lot of agreement, apart from the proposition that the ALP needs a third alternative.




The following analysis is based on a sample weighted to reflect voting preference of the community at large.

The caucus vote didn't improve the situation for Julia Gillard. Her win made people less likely to vote Labor. It seems that the prospect of Kevin Rudd winning lifted Labor's vote (which probably explains the last Newspoll result).

Thinking about the result of the Labor leadership ballot are you now more or less likely to vote Labor?


Much more likely 8%
More likely 12%
Neither more nor less likely 38%
Less likely 11%
Much less likely 29%
Unsure 1%
Grand Total 100%
Total more likely 21%
Total less likely 40%
Net likely -19%


There is certainly a strong moral feeling against Rudd's original removal on the basis that it was unjust:

What happened to Kevin Rudd when he was removed as Prime Minister in 2010 was unjust.


Strongly agree 36%
Agree 19%
Neutral 13%
Disagree 13%
Strongly disagree 19%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 54%
Total disagree 32%
Net agree 22%


Although there was not strong agreement that it required any sort of closure, with the sample evenly split.

This 2012 ALP leadership ballot was necessary to give closure to the removal of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister in 2010.

Strongly agree 24%
Agree 17%
Neutral 15%
Disagree 14%
Strongly disagree 29%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 41%
Total disagree 44%
Net agree -2%

Some Labor figures were suggesting that Julia Gillard looked stronger as a result of the contest. While a significant number of respondents thought this was the case, even more thought it wasn't.

Julia Gillard has come out of this contest looking stronger.

Strongly agree 21%
Agree 20%
Neutral 11%
Disagree 14%
Strongly disagree 34%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 41%
Total disagree 48%
Net agree -7%

I actually thought it personally made her look more human and that her delivery at press conferences had improved. This was not a majority view.

Julia Gillard has come out of this contest looking more human.

Strongly agree 14%
Agree 14%
Neutral 21%
Disagree 13%
Strongly disagree 39%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 27%
Total disagree 52%
Net agree -25%

In fact almost a majority is looking forward to Gillard being challenged again. The ballot has solved nothing.

This should be the end of challenges to Julia Gillard from within the Labor Party in this term of government.

Strongly agree 25%
Agree 14%
Neutral 12%
Disagree 14%
Strongly disagree 35%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 39%
Total disagree 49%
Net agree -10%

Despite what he says, a plurality believes Rudd will likely challenge again.

Kevin Rudd is to be believed when he says that he will not initiate a challenge against Julia Gillard.

Strongly agree 13%
Agree 17%
Neutral 22%
Disagree 18%
Strongly disagree 29%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 30%
Total disagree 47%
Net agree -17%

And on balance believe he should challenge again.

Kevin Rudd may need to be prepared to be part of a challenge to Julia Gillard during this term of government.

Strongly agree 20%
Agree 23%
Neutral 20%
Disagree 14%
Strongly disagree 23%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 43%
Total disagree 38%
Net agree 5%

But they would prefer neither Gillard nor Rudd.

If there is another leadership ballot this term the ALP needs a third person to contest it.

Strongly agree 36%
Agree 19%
Neutral 17%
Disagree 9%
Strongly disagree 19%
Grand Total 100%
Total agree 55%
Total disagree 28%
Net agree 28%
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0 #1 In some ways, I would like to see StepheLorikeet 2012-03-20 16:43
In some ways, I would like to see Stephen Smith lead the ALP, because I don't like either Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd.

But with either of them in charge, they are more likely to get voted out, so I think we should keep the grossly unpopular Ju-liar in the top job.

In any case I strongly suspect that Bill Shorten will soon be elevated to the leadership position.

A few days ago, we were told that the government needs to bring in another 138,000 foreign workers to fill the shortfall in the service industries (waitresses, bar people, cleaners etc).

Then more recently Senator Evans said we needed our young people to get a degree (or at least a Certificate III from VET) because there won't be any work in the service industries.

This is just another case of the Slave Labor Party failing to pay a decent wage to Aussies, thereby driving them out of the service industries, then inciting racial and religious tensions, and driving those who would boost our Age Pyramid back out of the country.
0 #2 RE: Australians look for third alternativeVenice 2012-06-02 00:34
I am sad to know about that, well~ there are really firms or businesses that can afford to pay the minimum wage needed.
Thanks for being transparent with the polls.

Venice from meuble banc TV