Half-time in Queensland election - the quants

This is a snap shot of where the parties were last week. Since then Galaxy and Roy Morgan both indicate that things have moved back, suggesting Labor has over-played its hand.

Yet in the middle of the campaign Labor had probably pulled Newman back by 5%. The first table compares our results at the end of 2011 with our results in the middle of the campaign. I have made no adjustments to the sample, so it overstates the likely Greens vote and understates the likely Labor vote. Sample size at end of 2011 was 632 and mid-campaign 544.

 

 

First Preference
2011 2012 Change
Australian Democrats 0% 1% 0%
Bob Katter's Australian Party 13% 11% -2%
Christian Democrats 0% 0% 0%
Democratic Labor Party 1% 0% 0%
Family First 1% 2% 0%
Greens 16% 17% 1%
Independent 3% 3% 0%
Labor 20% 21% 2%
Liberal National 43% 45% 1%
Other 1% 0% -1%
The Queensland Party 2% 1% -2%

This resolves into a two-party preferred vote, calculated after allowing for non-allocation of preferences as well as allocation of:

 

2011 2012 Change
Labor 35% 39% 4%
Liberal 65% 61% -4%
100% 100%

The decline in Campbell Newman's approval noted in November last year had continued:

 

 

Newman Approval 2011 2012 Change
Strongly approve 18% 14% -4%
Approve 24% 25% 1%
Neither approve nor disapprove 16% 16% 0%
Disapprove 18% 16% -2%
Strongly disapprove 24% 29% 5%
Grand Total 100% 100% 0%
Total approve 41% 39% -61%
Total disapprove 41% 45% 3%
Net approve 0% -6% -47%

And Anna Bligh's approval has improved by a little more than Newman's has dropped:

 

Bligh Approval 2011 2012 Change
Strongly approve 9% 8% -1%
Approve 17% 21% 4%
Neither approve nor disapprove 13% 12% -1%
Disapprove 19% 20% 0%
Strongly disapprove 42% 39% -2%
Grand Total 100% 100% 0%
Total approve 26% 29% 3%
Total disapprove 61% 59% -2%
Net approve -35% -30% 5%

Preferred premier has also improved for Bligh:

 

 

Preferred Premier
2011 2012 Change
Anna Bligh 34% 37% 4%
Campbell Newman 55% 52% -3%
Unsure 11% 10% -1%
Grand Total 100% 100% 0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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