How the leadership coup affected voters

Our quants showed that voters were less inclined to vote Labor after Julia Gillard's win, but that leaves the question of why open. Our qualitative responses give the answer, and it is two sides of the same coin. Some voters were relishing the idea of a Rudd victory, and were thinking of moving to Labor (vindication of the line that Rudd supporters were running) and others were repelled by the brutal way that Gillard was defended. Added to that there was some disquiet that the battle could be so bloody, but then immediately it was over Gillard was praising her erstwhile opponent.



I have copied a number of verbatim comments below so you can get a feel for it. I'll put the Leximancer map up in a separate post, although I understand a large number of you does not appear to find it helpful. So I've produced a concept cloud version of the map to see whether that helps.

Much more likely to vote Labor

“Undeniably the Prime Minister has been demonised throughout all sections of the media, and regardless of that she has pursued good policy outcomes against the odds, furthermore there are other important issues that she will address and pursue to the betterment of the country and its people.”

“I've stuck to my belief that Gillard is the best of who's available at the moment to look after the country. That combined with "anyone but Abbott" make me a definite labour voter, although probably referenced from the AD's in the Upper.”

“Julia Gillard gets the jobs done. Rudd just talks and twitters.”

“Julia Gillard has her problems but, given the strength of her support, I hope she has the mettle to do some things she believes in and that she listens to the Greens who are more Labor than Labor at times. I'd like to see a greener more left party than the party that has been competing for Liberal votes. Clear differentiation and leadership is required - without ego!”

“For the first time in my life I questioned whether I wanted to vote for a party that would put someone like Rudd in as leader just because of the polls this far out from an election. JG win was a great relief to me.”

More likely

“I liked the way gillard handled the press after the voting, rudd went quietly and the party can now really get down to work and produce some good results”

“While i thought the Rudd-Gillard transition was badly handled at the time, I have come to like Gillard and how she gets things done, and most of what I have heard about and, more importantly, seen from Rudd in the past week makes me more of a Gillard fan than ever.”

“I think that Julia Gillard is doing a better job than she is given credit for in the media, which then influences the polls in a negative way. I think that Tony Abbott is given more air time than is warranted, given that so much of what he says is a publicity stunt that the media seem over-anxious to report.”

“Julia is a better team player, likely to bring the party together before the election, with a sound record of achievements. Besides, she came out fighting and did well.”

“I do not want an Abbott government so would always ultimately support Labour, but would have found Rudd hard to stomach within a very short time; his one strength is that he is able to fool the public and enjoys their support”

“I was already planning to vot Labor but may not have had Rudd got back in.”

“while I usually vote Labor, I would not have voted for them in the next election if Kevin Rudd was the leader”

“Now know the real reason for Rudd being deposed - not just opinion polls.”

Neither more nor less likely

“I am a Labor voter. While I am not happy with all the rubbish that's been going on, I don't see an alternative that would make me change my vote away from Labor.”

Less likely

“The ministers that poured scorn on Kevin Rudd after all this time dissapointed me”

“I don't really have any faith in the current Government's promises or policies. I dislike the opposition's even more.”

“Julia gillard is untrustworthy. And she cannot win against tony Abbott. The labor party has just lost the next election.”

“I don't think the Labor party is moving in the right direction. I think the factional power-brokers have hamstrung the party's ability to develop and deliver forward-thinking policies - instead focussing purely on what is most likely to keep them in power. I believe Kevin Rudd tried to address these issues and that he fought to implement policies that were unpopular, but visionary. And I believe that is why he is so reviled by his own party. They are simply resisting change.” As though projecting a view of the party onto Rudd. Don’t accept the character analysis by his colleagues as being genuine, but believe Rudd wanted to fix what they want to fix about the party.

“I kinda wanted a reason to support labor but now I think I'll just forget about it for now; not that I wanted Rudd to win, I think I'm just poli-tired.”

“I hated the vicious campaign against Kevin and would not vote for a party that is so destructive to one of their own.”

Much less

“While Kevin Rudd started us on the European road with indisciplined spending. he had some vision and some of that expenditure was justified during the global financial crisis. Julia Gillard is an economic illiterate intent only upon holding on to power for as long as possible.”

“I loathe the Tories, but it is so very important to let those backroom bully boys know that they cannot ignore the Australian people. I would rather have an Abbott government than have Gillard...who incidentally is more right wing that many in the Coalition.”

“I don't like duplicity and double dealing. I don't like the spin coming out after the event to cover the obvious dissention within the ALP.”

“Gillard government is dysfunctional. Cannot trust Gillard let alone listen to her. Labor is broken.”

“I won't vote for a party who treats its supporters with total disregard in such a paternalistic and condecending manner. The behaviour/comments of many of the Caucus members has been a total disappointment for me. Also Ms Gillard who after all she said about the previous PM's work style etc to then come out and lavish praise upon him after the vote, is purely hypocritical.”

“Gillard is a power hungry elitest and not a leader.”

“Kevin should resign how he can work with those people is more than I can understand. I will never vote for him again. The party of great haters will never let him up again. He was an excellent Foreign Affairs minister and brought great credit to our country. He must be nuts to do what he is doing.”

“Undignified, insulting, surreal; greed for power and ruthless ambition all on display. Truly, utterly repulsive. “

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0 #1 Why so many folk believe the leader of tGeoff Thomas 2012-03-19 09:52
Why so many folk believe the leader of their party or preferred person does not speak spin and the other/opposing person does, continues to amaze me, let's be honest, both sides are politicians, we have to look at issues ourselves, not let others tell us how to think.
Just because somebody tweaks some of your buttons in the right way does not mean you can go to sleep and let them decide how you think, that attitude is why the politicians are as they are, you and all like you have created this travesty of democracy we all have become uneasy about.
0 #2 I am still pondering why they bothered wLorikeet 2012-03-21 16:03
I am still pondering why they bothered with the whole fiasco at all. Perhaps they wanted to clear the air in the hope that Anna Bligh's head could be saved from the chopping block. Fat chance of that!

This morning I found myself mentally thanking Clive Palmer for sinking the boot into the Greens. The last thing we need is even worse communists running the nation.
0 #3 It continues to amaze me how some peopleBarbara Ann 2012-03-24 08:38
It continues to amaze me how some people can still support Labor after all the lies and broken promises. For another example besides the Carbon Dioxide Tax is the Superannuation Guarantee Levy.

I am so glad to see journalists are now querying where the increase in the Super Guarantee Levy is really coming from - not from the mining tax but, from the employer or the employee.

With most professional companies the Super Guarantee Levy is part of the Salary Package. Their Gross Salary will be 3% less making their net take home pay less so, the employee is bearing the burden. Young families need the money now, not in 40 years time.

With others, such as the hospitality industry, it will be 12% of their Gross Wage so, the bill will be an employer expense. Because of this added expense, some employers may not be able afford to give wage increases to staff, because every time the employees Gross Wage increases so does the 12% Super Guarantee Levy. The 12% is based on the Gross Wage.

The Superannuation Guarantee Levy is also included in the annual Workers Compensation amount and the Payroll Tax amount, the higher the amount, the higher the Annual Workers Comp Premium for the company, and more Payroll Tax the company has to pay.

I don’t know how politicians salaries work but if it is similar to the hospitality industry their Super would have increased substantially with their last pay rise.

I have been involved with payrolls all my work life. I am now a Senior Citizen.
0 #4 Hell hath no furry like that of a Labor Sweet Chocolate 2012-05-15 16:36
Hell hath no furry like that of a Labor fan scorned! I am utterly disappointed and sickened by the Gillard camp and how they handled the leadership contest (both times). It reflects poorly on the current leadership. Please take a lesson from the Liberals or the previous Keating-Hawke contest. Why come out publicly and "assassinate" a man that not only got "unelectable" Labor in Govt, but a very cranial, smart, moderate and visionary Labor leader. That he annoyed the Union mafia goes to show his independence. It also now shows clearly the power of our corrupt union thugs on running our country. Sick, corrupt and insane!
0 #5 Working it out, after the world hearing mark pinner 2012-05-18 00:06
Working it out, after the world hearing a country calling its priminister KEVONOLEMON I thought, what the rest of the world thinks of our free speech. Then just kick out the MAN the majority voted in, over night. Mr Rudd, why didn't u wait? J Gillard will comit political suicide, or has she done that already. Anyway, who voted for J Gillard in 07 ? Our PM's are just puppets of their party and can have their strings cut one by one. The political assassination of K Rudd Embarised me personally, democracy at work,
0 #6 RE: How the leadership coup affected votersHonnie 2012-05-26 05:12
Because most of the time ~ a lot is follower. People are just simply human beings who always being influence by another human being or other factors like environment. So that's how voters are~ to be influenced.

Honnie from Installation électrique schéma